Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is facing increasing scrutiny as his performance metrics, particularly fastball velocity, have seen a marked decline in recent months. Skenes, who has been a focal point for the Pirates since his call-up, is struggling to replicate his earlier season success, leading to a steady rise in his earned run average (ERA) since April.
Declining Velocity and ERA
Skenes' ERA has climbed each month this season, starting at an impressive 1.89 in April, moving to 2.87 in May, and 3.58 in June. The trend worsened significantly in July, where he posted a 6.25 ERA over six starts, allowing 22 earned runs. His most recent outing on Wednesday, a 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, saw him allow three runs on two hits and four walks with six strikeouts, an improvement from his last start of July where he gave up seven earned runs in four innings.
A primary concern has been a noticeable downtick in Skenes’ velocity. His fastball is averaging 97 mph this season, a decrease from 98.2 mph in 2025 and 98.8 mph in his rookie season. He has not thrown a pitch over 100 mph this year, a stark contrast to the over 100 pitches he threw at that speed last season. Prior to his August 6 start, Skenes had not thrown a pitch above 98 mph in five previous starts.
Despite the decrease in velocity, Skenes has expressed a lack of concern. "I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well," he stated during the All-Star break. "I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level."
Off-Speed Pitches and Hitting Trends
The struggles extend beyond his fastball. Skenes' off-speed pitches have also seen a significant drop in effectiveness. After ranking in the 100th and 98th percentiles for off-speed pitch quality and run value last season, these metrics have fallen to the 17th percentile in 2026. Hitters are making contact more frequently and on time, with opposing batters seeing Skenes' pitches 45 percent of the time this season compared to 39 percent last season.
Compounding these issues is the Pirates' defense, which has been below average. The team holds a minus-12 record in outs above average and ranks sixth-worst in MLB in converting batted balls into outs, further hindering Skenes' efforts on the mound.
