Ohio State Remains National Championship Favorite Despite Late-Game Collapse

Despite a dramatic fourth-quarter collapse that saw them lose 24-23 to No. 4 Texas, Ohio State remains the favorite to win the college football national championship, according to oddsmakers. The Buckeyes’ odds to win the title shortened slightly from +550 to +530 at DraftKings following the game.

Texas achieved a historic comeback, scoring 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to defeat a No. 1 team for the first time. This victory propelled the Longhorns to the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25, with their championship odds now at +650.

The market's reaction suggests that in the current college football landscape, a single regular-season loss, even to a strong contender, does not significantly derail a team's championship aspirations, especially with the expanded playoff format.

Johnny Avello, Director of Sports Operations at DraftKings, noted that teams can afford one or two losses and still make a championship run, citing Ohio State's own 2024 national title victory after two regular-season defeats. In 2024, Ohio State won the championship after losing 32-31 to Oregon and being shut out 13-0 by Michigan.

The expanded 12-team playoff format, introduced in 2024, features four rounds, with initial games played at home sites and subsequent rounds hosted by major bowl games. This structure allows more flexibility for teams to absorb losses.

Factors beyond the final score also influence betting markets. Ohio State largely controlled the game against Texas, outgaining the Longhorns by 36 yards despite playing in a hostile road environment with 100,119 fans in attendance. The performance through the first three quarters was considered more indicative of the team's overall strength than the final outcome.

"While Ohio State did blow a lead, they were in control for most of that game in a hostile road environment. The result could have gone either way," John Ewing, public relations manager at BetMGM, told The Post. "A one-point road loss to Texas — one of the highest-rated teams on our board — doesn’t materially change our view of either team."

The Buckeyes also benefit from the loss not being a conference defeat, preserving their path to potentially winning the Big Ten and securing a playoff spot. "Ohio State remains our top-rated team, with elite talent across the field and a clear path to the College Football Playoff," Avello added.

For Texas, the comeback victory bolsters their playoff resume, but questions remain about their ability to sustain that performance. The Longhorns face a challenging schedule with six ranked opponents remaining. They are set to play UTSA next, while Ohio State will host Illinois.