The New York Mets have experienced a notable turnaround since the MLB Trade Deadline, demonstrating increased offensive competence. Since August 1, the team has led Major League Baseball in home runs with 15 and has posted a 6-1 record over their last seven games. Concurrently, the Mets appear to have solidified their closer role with Kodai Senga.
The Mets are set to enter Wednesday's game as slight underdogs (+125) against the Braves. The Mets will start rookie pitcher Zac Gallen (3-2, 2.52 ERA), who is scheduled to face Atlanta's recent trade acquisition, Tyler Mahle (3-9, 4.83 ERA).
Mahle made a strong debut for the Braves, recording his best start of the season against the Yankees. He pitched six shutout innings and recorded nine strikeouts. However, advanced analytics suggest that Gallen's current ERA of 2.52 may not be sustainable, with his xERA standing at 4.63. His hard-hit rate is 39.8 percent, and his average exit velocity is 89.3 MPH, which could indicate a potential for regression.
Given these factors, the Mets are considered deserving underdogs. Despite their recent offensive production, with the team ranking third in baseball in runs scored since August 1, analysts are looking beyond the moneyline.
One projected wager focuses on the total runs scored, with an expectation for the over 7.5 runs at -150. This prediction is supported by the Mets' recent scoring performance and a general expectation that both starting pitchers may allow multiple runs. There is also a consideration for betting on at least one run being scored in the first inning. Analysts anticipate that Gallen may regress from his recent success and that Mahle, who struggled with the Giants, may not see a complete turnaround with his new team.