The Open Championship has a history of producing surprising winners, with six of the last 16 champions entering the tournament with odds of 80/1 or longer. This trend suggests that unexpected contenders may once again emerge at Royal Birkdale for the 2026 event. In 2023, Brian Harman won at 125/1 odds at Royal Liverpool. While Jordan Spieth was a favorite when he won the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in 2017, the leaderboard that year included long shots like Haotong Li, Marc Leishman, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, and Matthew Southgate.
Potential Long-Shot Contenders
Sepp Straka, currently listed at 210/1 with DraftKings, could be a strong dark horse. Despite a slight stall in his 2026 campaign, Straka has shown flashes of form with a runner-up finish at Pebble Beach and a T4 at the Cadillac Championship. His odds have fallen due to a perceived dip in performance, but this presents an opportunity for bettors to back a player who finished T2 at the 2023 Open Championship.
Matthew Jordan, with odds of 400/1 at Fanatics Sportsbook, is considered an Open Championship specialist. The 30-year-old has achieved two top-10 finishes in the event in 2023 and 2024. Jordan's familiarity with Royal Birkdale, having grown up approximately 25 miles north of the course, could also be an advantage.
Another potential long shot is Matthew Southgate, who is listed at 2,500/1 with DraftKings. Similar to Jordan, Southgate excels in links-style play and should find the Royal Birkdale course to his liking. He finished T6 the last time the major was held at this venue. Southgate enters the week with momentum, having recently qualified for the tournament and secured a victory on the Challenger Tour a few weeks prior.