USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley faces a pivotal 2026 season as he aims to elevate the team to College Football Playoff contention. The narrative of Riley's tenure so far has been a cycle of strong starts followed by late-season stumbles that have derailed playoff hopes. In 2022, the setback came in the Pac-12 title game against Utah. The following year, a home loss to Washington proved costly. In 2024, Penn State secured an overtime victory, and last season, Oregon handed USC a road defeat.
Season Opener and Early Conference Play
The Trojans begin their 2026 campaign at home against San Jose State on August 29. Despite the Spartans' coach having a history of engineering upsets, USC's talent level, especially with the presence of wide receiver Malachi Riley, is expected to overcome any challenges posed by San Jose State's defensive turnover. The prediction is a win for USC, making their record 1-0.
September Schedule
USC hosts Fresno State on September 4. While the Bulldogs have historically played tough matchups against USC, a roster with inexperienced quarterbacks and a reliance on the run is unlikely to match up against a veteran USC defense. The Trojans are predicted to win, improving to 2-0.
Louisiana visits the Coliseum on September 12. The Ragin' Cajuns, known for their nickname and consistency in the Sun Belt Conference, feature quarterback Lunch Winfield, a capable runner. However, a largely new defense and a significant talent gap are expected to result in a USC victory, moving the Trojans to 3-0.
The Trojans travel to Rutgers on September 19. Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano has expressed confidence, but the team faces challenges with a new quarterback and a reshuffled offensive line, despite having some talent at wide receiver and running back. USC is predicted to win, reaching 4-0.
Key Conference Matchups
USC faces Oregon at home on September 26. Riley holds an 0-2 record against the Ducks, but both previous losses were on the road. With quarterback Dante Moore expected to be a factor and USC's offensive strength, the Trojans are predicted to win a high-scoring contest, making their record 5-0.
Washington visits on October 3. The Huskies will have a less potent offense compared to the previous season, while their defense boasts transfers and solid returners. Despite coach Jedd Fisch's history of challenging USC, the Trojans are favored to win, advancing to 6-0.
Mid-Season Road Tests
On October 10, USC travels to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have a new coach, Matt Campbell, known for consistent success at Iowa State without winning major championships, and have added proven transfers, including quarterback Rocco Becht. USC is predicted to win, overcoming Penn State and moving to 7-0, demonstrating their defense can succeed without former coordinator D' الأن Lynn.
USC's next road test is against Wisconsin on October 24. Coach Luke Fickell's tenure with the Badgers has been inconsistent. While the addition of quarterback Colton Joseph offers some hope, the team is not expected to upset the Trojans, who are predicted to win, making their record 8-0.
Defining November Games
A highly anticipated matchup against Ohio State occurs on October 31. The Buckeyes, led by the efficient quarterback Julian Sayin, are expected to be a formidable opponent. Despite questions on defense due to NFL departures, Ohio State's consistent talent under coach Ryan Day is predicted to hand USC their first loss of the season, bringing the Trojans' record to 8-1.
USC travels to Indiana on November 14. The Hoosiers, under coach Curt Cignetti, have experienced recent success, including CFP appearances and a national title. The prediction is that Indiana, with quarterback Josh Hoover, will have just enough to defeat USC at home, making the Trojans' record 8-2.
USC faces Maryland on November 21. The Trojans are expected to exact revenge for a previous home loss to the Terrapins in October 2024, securing a win and improving their record to 9-2.
Season Finale and Bowl Game
The season concludes with a road game against UCLA on November 28. With two losses already, USC's playoff hopes could hinge on this rivalry game. Despite USC's talent advantage, the Bruins, under new coach Bob Chesney and motivated by past upsets, are predicted to win, resulting in a 9-3 record for USC.
USC is projected to play Clemson in the Holiday Bowl. In a game potentially featuring two coaches on the hot seat, USC is predicted to win a contest marked by roster opt-outs, with the outcome potentially putting athletic director Jennifer Cohen in a position to evaluate Riley's future with the team. The predicted final record for the Trojans is 10-3.