New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is set to start Saturday against the Mets in the Subway Series, but recent performance data suggests he may be facing challenges as he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Cole has allowed 10 earned runs across 18 1/3 innings over his last three starts. His most difficult outing came on Sunday against the Padres, where he surrendered four home runs, including three consecutively before recording an out in the first inning. Although Cole recovered to complete seven innings in that game, the recent trend has become a point of concern, particularly with the Mets' offense showing renewed strength.
Hard contact has been a persistent issue for Cole throughout the season, with his average exit velocity allowed ranking in the bottom four percent of the league. Furthermore, he has recorded only 13 strikeouts in his recent stretch, indicating that hitters are finding more success against him.
This performance dip comes as the Mets have emerged as a formidable offensive force. The team entered the Subway Series leading the majors in runs scored in September and tallied 31 runs during a recent three-game sweep of the Marlins. Cole also faced difficulties against the Mets in two starts during the 2024 season, though his current form is a more significant indicator of potential challenges.
Given Cole's recent regression and the Mets' offensive surge, some analysts are predicting another challenging start for the Yankees' ace. One betting prediction suggests Gerrit Cole Over 2.5 earned runs allowed, with odds of +119 available on DraftKings.