France has emerged as the frontrunner to win the World Cup, with a supercomputer giving Les Bleus a 27.3% chance of lifting the trophy. Defending champions Argentina are the third favorites at 17.3%, while England is close behind with a 16.5% probability.
The tournament has advanced to the quarter-final stage following Switzerland's penalty shootout victory over Colombia. With the remaining teams assessed, the supercomputer's calculations offer insight into their prospects.
Favorites and Underdogs
France boasts a formidable squad, featuring Kylian Mbappe, who has already scored seven goals in the tournament and 11 in World Cup knockout stages. The supercomputer highlights France's attacking depth, noting it's "France's tournament to lose."
Argentina, despite not always playing at their peak, has a knack for winning, aided by Lionel Messi's eight goals in five matches. However, Messi's penalty record, with four misses in eight attempts, is noted as a potential vulnerability.
England's chances are bolstered by striker Harry Kane and midfielder Jude Bellingham. While acknowledging strong attacking and midfield talent, concerns remain about the defense's quality when compared to their offensive counterparts.
Quarter-Finalists' Prospects
Spain, currently undefeated and yet to concede a goal in the tournament, is ranked as the second-highest favorite with a 21.3% chance of winning. Despite their defensive solidity, the analysis suggests "something isn't quite right" with their overall performance compared to previous tournaments.
Norway, driven by the prolific Erling Haaland who has scored 58% of their goals, has a 6.6% chance. Their challenge lies in relying heavily on Haaland, with less goal threat from other players.
Switzerland, with an 8-match unbeaten streak and a save percentage of 84% from goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, has a 3.8% chance. Their struggle to create chances against higher-ranked opposition and the daunting prospect of facing Argentina are significant hurdles.
Belgium's chances are calculated at 3.6%. They have shown improvement throughout the tournament, but face a strong, unbeaten Spanish side, against whom they have a poor historical record.
Morocco, the last African nation remaining, has a 3.7% chance. They are unbeaten in 33 international games but face the formidable challenge of France in the quarter-finals.