France has emerged as the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup as the tournament enters its semifinal stage, with oddsmakers giving the team a significant edge over the remaining contenders. Argentina, the defending champion, faces the longest odds among the final four teams.
In the semifinals, France is set to face Spain, while England will play against Argentina. Oddsmakers favor France to advance past Spain, listing Les Bleus as a +130 favorite on the three-way moneyline, with Spain at +225 and a draw also at +225. France's Kylian Mbappe is a key factor, tied with Lionel Messi for the most goals in the tournament with eight. Mbappe is also the favorite to finish as the top goalscorer and win the Golden Ball.
Spain, despite allowing its first goal of the tournament in the quarterfinals against Belgium, managed to secure a victory with a late goal. Oddsmakers are less optimistic about Argentina's chances of advancing to the final. England is listed as a +155 favorite in their semifinal matchup, with both Argentina and a draw at +200.
Argentina has shown resilience, winning its last three matches dramatically. However, England has consistently met challenges, with strong performances from Jude Bellingham. Despite Argentina's tenacity, England is viewed as the favorite to progress.
France entered the semifinals with +150 odds to win the World Cup, followed by Spain and England, both at +333. Argentina's odds stand at +400. These semifinal odds reflect pre-tournament expectations, where France (+500), Spain (+450), and England (+600) were among the top choices, and Argentina (+800) was tied for the fourth-best odds.