A "Super El Niño" event is underway and could lead to an increase in great white shark attacks as the marine predators seek cooler waters outside their usual habitats, according to scientists. Experts warn that the warming Pacific Ocean may force great whites to travel north from their typical summer and autumn gathering spots off the coast of Mexico.
Chris Lowe, a shark expert at California State University, Long Beach, stated that great white sharks could become more prevalent along California's coastline between July and September. Lowe's team has been monitoring great white sharks in Southern California since 2009, tagging and trapping 350 individuals. They have observed that water temperature influences shark migration patterns.
Satellite observations of sea surface height across the Pacific confirmed the "Super El Niño" is active as of June. NASA explained that warming ocean water expands, causing sea levels to rise, which is a reliable indicator of ocean temperatures. Elevated sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific are associated with El Niño conditions.
Lowe's research also indicated an early surge in juvenile sharks along California's coast starting in February, which is earlier than the typical mid-April emergence. Since young sharks prefer cooler waters, this suggests that Southern California beaches, being cooler than Mexico's waters, may attract more great whites.
"We have been monitoring the great white sharks in Southern California since 2009," Lowe told The California Post. "Since then we have tagged and trapped 350. And that's how we know temperature affects their migration."
He further warned that the same beaches frequented by humans could see more juvenile white sharks along the Southern California coastline up to Monterey. In addition to great whites, Lowe anticipates an increase in smooth hammerhead sharks in the area.
Data from the International Shark Attack Files shows the U.S. leads in unprovoked shark attacks. In 2025, there were 25 confirmed cases in the U.S., with five occurring in California, one of which was fatal.
Despite the predictions, experts emphasize that the risk of shark bites remains exceptionally low. For context, while nine people worldwide were killed by sharks last year, lightning strikes are estimated to cause approximately 24,000 deaths annually.
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts above-normal temperatures globally due to the Super El Niño, with significant warming expected across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. Warming is also anticipated in South America, Africa, and coastal regions of Australia, as well as in tropical areas like Equatorial Africa and Southeast Asia.