A discarded SpaceX rocket's upper stage is predicted to impact the moon next Wednesday, creating a new crater on the lunar surface. Space tracking expert Bill Gray estimates the collision will occur at approximately 5,400 mph near Einstein Crater on the moon's western limb.
The impact is anticipated to be equivalent to three tons of TNT, ejecting a plume of dust and rubble. Scientists are interested in observing the event to better understand the potential hazards posed by debris impacts for future astronauts, given the moon's low gravity and lack of atmosphere to disperse ejected material. Los Alamos National Laboratory's Benjamin Fernando predicts the resulting crater will be about 90 feet across and 16 feet deep, though likely too small to be seen from Earth with the naked eye.
While this particular rocket, which was used for a lunar lander launch about a year ago, was not intentionally aimed at the moon, its uncontrolled trajectory highlights growing concerns about space debris. Experts suggest that nudging the rocket stage into solar orbit could have prevented the lunar impact.
This marks the second known instance of a defunct rocket accidentally crashing into the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket segment created two craters on the lunar far side.
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter are scheduled to capture before-and-after images of the impact site. The Danuri orbiter is expected to pass within a few miles of the impact zone just minutes before the collision. The brief impact flash itself is likely to be too dim to observe, but the resulting dust and debris stream could remain visible to telescopes for an extended period.