Researchers from Arizona State University have proposed a controversial geoengineering technique dubbed 'Weather Jiu-Jitsu,' which they claim could be used to influence and mitigate extreme weather events. The method involves applying small, carefully timed cloud seeding operations in the days preceding a significant weather phenomenon.
This approach, detailed in a study published in PLOS Water, suggests that such interventions could potentially 'nudge' weather systems away from harmful paths. The researchers posit that this technique could not only defuse heatwaves but also steer hurricanes and redirect atmospheric rivers. Simulations using a high-resolution AI model called Aurora indicated that the technique could have significantly altered past extreme events.
According to the study's simulations, 'Weather Jiu-Jitsu' could have shifted the trajectory of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 by approximately 300 miles, potentially sparing New York City from its direct impact. It also suggested the possibility of raising the temperature during the 2021 Texas freeze by about 18°F and reducing precipitation from a 2022 atmospheric river event affecting California by around five percent.
Cloud seeding itself is a geoengineering process that aims to trigger precipitation by introducing substances like silver iodide or salt into clouds. These substances act as nuclei, causing water vapor to condense and form ice crystals or larger water droplets. These then fall as snow or rain. The process can be carried out by releasing chemicals from the ground, injecting them from aircraft, or using missiles or shells. Cloud seeding is already practiced in over 50 countries, including the U.S. and the UAE, though typically on a smaller scale to enhance local rainfall by 15-25%.
While the proposed application of 'Weather Jiu-Jitsu' is based on simulations, the researchers highlight its potential to offer a novel paradigm for addressing weather extremes. They argue that traditional methods like dams and levees may become insufficient against increasingly severe events and that this technique represents a "21st-century approach to living with nature rather than simply reacting to it."
However, the concept of weather modification is not without controversy. Critics, including Senior Meteorologist Johan Jaques at KISTERS, have raised ethical concerns about the potential consequences of interfering with weather systems. Jaques warned that changing weather in one region could have unintended and potentially catastrophic impacts on others, given that weather does not respect national borders. He cautioned that the unrestrained use of such technology could lead to diplomatic tensions and retaliatory "weather wars" between nations.
Concerns also extend to the broader ecological impacts. In a related discussion on geoengineering, Professor Phoebe Zarnetske of Michigan State University noted that for other controversial methods, like stratospheric aerosol injection (which aims to dim the sun), "there's very little known about the ecological impacts."