A prediction made in 1960 by physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues suggested humanity would face a 'Doomsday' on November 13, 2026. The prediction, based on an analysis of global population growth over two millennia, posited that if the accelerating trend continued unchecked, the population would surge toward infinity. This mathematical endpoint, termed 'Doomsday,' was not intended to signify the literal end of the world but rather the point at which the historical growth model would break down.
Von Foerster and his team examined 24 estimates of the world population from the time of Christ to 1958. They identified a pattern where the time it took for the global population to double decreased significantly over centuries. By extending this accelerating trend, their model calculated that the human population would approach infinity by mid-November 2026. The paper, titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, AD 2026," stated that at this date, human population would approach infinity if it grew as it had in the last two millennia.
When the paper was published in 1960, the world population was just over three billion. As of 2026, that number has risen to approximately 8.2 billion. However, demographers largely dismiss the 1960 prediction as no longer credible because global population growth has slowed considerably since the 1960s. The annual global population growth rate has fallen from a peak of about 2.2 percent in 1963 to approximately 0.84 percent in 2026, a decrease of about 62 percent, according to US Census Bureau estimates. At the rate seen in the 1960s, the population would double in about 32 years, whereas at the current rate, doubling would take approximately 83 years.
The researchers who developed the model acknowledged its limitations, noting that extrapolating backward placed the hypothetical first human approximately 200 billion years ago, a timeline predating the universe itself. They concluded that the model became unreliable when stretched too far, and the 'Doomsday' calculation represented a point where the mathematics became impossible rather than a literal prophecy of global destruction. The calculation also carried an uncertainty of about five and a half years, making the November 13 date less precise than it appeared. The authors argued their projection was noteworthy because it required only a slight extension of historical trends beyond the available data. They suggested historical figures like Charlemagne could have used the same model to predict the endpoint within 300 years, Queen Elizabeth I within 110 years, and Napoleon within 30 years.
Despite the scientific community's skepticism regarding the prediction's validity due to the changed growth dynamics, von Foerster's 'Doomsday' calculation has gained renewed attention as the predicted date draws near.