Discarded SpaceX Rocket Set for Lunar Impact, Creating New Crater

An upper stage of a SpaceX rocket, discarded after a mission approximately a year ago, is on an unintentional collision course with the moon and is expected to impact next week, creating a new crater on the lunar surface. Experts predict the rocket will strike the moon at approximately 5,400 mph, with an explosive force equivalent to three tons of TNT.

The impact is anticipated to eject a plume of dust and rubble, which scientists and amateur astronomers aim to observe. Space tracking expert Bill Gray has predicted the impact will occur near Einstein Crater on the moon's sunlit western limb. While this particular rocket is not a cause for significant concern among scientists, its trajectory highlights the growing issue of space debris accumulating in orbit.

Gray stated that the situation is becoming "crowded up there." He also noted that the crash could have been avoided if the rocket's upper stage had been nudged into a solar orbit instead. This event marks the second known instance of a rocket segment accidentally impacting the moon; a Chinese rocket segment created two craters on the far side of the moon in 2022.

The flash from the impact is expected to be brief and too dim to be seen by the naked eye. However, the resulting debris stream could extend for miles and remain visible through telescopes for an extended period. Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist Benjamin Fernando explained that the moon's low gravity and lack of atmosphere mean dust is not easily dispersed. He added that studying this event could help determine the hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts.

Fernando estimates the impact will create a crater roughly 90 feet in diameter and 16 feet deep. This crater, though not visible from Earth, should be observable by lunar spacecraft. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea's Danuri lunar orbiter are expected to capture before-and-after images of the impact site. The Danuri orbiter is scheduled to pass within a few miles of the impact zone just two minutes before the predicted collision.