The Broadway season is shaping up to be a contest between two high-profile musicals: "Dolly: A True Original Musical," a biographical show about country music legend Dolly Parton, and "Paddington," based on the adventures of the polite British bear.
Both productions represent substantial financial gambles, with "Paddington" reportedly capitalized at $31 million and "Dolly" at a combined $30 million for its tryout and Broadway run. These figures place them among the season's most expensive new shows. "Paddington" alone has a capitalization of $31 million, nearing the cost of the recent Broadway flop "Death Becomes Her."
Despite the high costs, both shows are showing early promise in ticket sales. Sources indicate "Dolly" has an advance of over $3 million, slightly ahead of "Paddington," although other reports suggest sales are neck-and-neck, with both musicals having sold around $3 million in tickets. This early strength is notable as the Broadway season has not yet officially begun, with previews for "Paranormal Activity" being one of the few early starters.
"Paddington" arrives on Broadway with a proven track record as a major hit in London, where it has been largely sold out for months. The London production was capitalized at $16.7 million. However, its appeal in the American market remains a question, as the children's books are not as widely read by U.S. children, and millennial parents may lack the same nostalgia as their British counterparts. While the recent film trilogy has increased the bear's visibility, its box office performance in the U.S. was modest compared to its UK gross. Family shows have historically faced challenges on Broadway, with success often limited to established brands like Disney or universally appealing shows such as "Wicked" and "Hamilton."
Producers of "Paddington," Sonia Friedman and Eliza Lumley, acknowledge the show's $31 million capitalization on Broadway and the London production's $16.7 million cost. They stated the show is nine months from its spring opening and has yet to launch its full marketing campaign. They anticipate sales will accelerate as previews begin, similar to its trajectory in London. The production has already employed a teaser campaign with "Have you seen this bear?" flyers and featured the character on "Good Morning America."
"Dolly: A True Original Musical," produced by Parton herself and the Ambassador Theatre Group, announced its Broadway run just two weeks ago with a social media video from Parton and began ticket sales on July 10. Marketing efforts have been minimal, with Parton, 80, not undertaking national television interviews. Nevertheless, the show is selling well, particularly to groups.
The musical's combined cost for its Nashville tryout and New York production is $30 million, with $17 million allocated for the Broadway run. Reports from its 2025 tryout in Nashville indicated mixed word-of-mouth, with criticisms suggesting a need for more of Parton's popular songs in the first act and a less strictly biographical narrative. Producers are reportedly addressing these concerns.
Despite these challenges, "Dolly" benefits from Parton's immense cultural recognition in the United States. "Dolly Parton is a singular figure in our culture," said British producer Adam Speers of Ambassador Theatre Group. "There’s nobody else quite like her: her humor, her remarkable empathy and an ability to make everyone feel like they’ve known her their entire lives."
Producers for "Paddington" emphasize the universal themes of kindness, tolerance, acceptance, and finding home, suggesting these values will resonate with a broad audience. The success of both musicals will hinge on their ability to connect with American theatergoers and justify their significant financial investments.