Millions of barrels of oil production in the Persian Gulf remain offline, posing a significant and potentially long-lasting threat to global energy markets that could persist long after the immediate crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved. Petroleum geologist Art Berman warns that restarting these wells is a complex undertaking and some may never fully recover their previous output.
Berman, who has over four decades of experience in the energy industry, stated that approximately 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production are currently shut in, contributing to a global shortfall of about 10 million barrels per day. He emphasized that the focus on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz overlooks a more fundamental issue: the actual production of oil.
"This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues," Berman said. "The bigger story and the more important one long term is that 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production is currently shut in and world production is down about 10 million barrels a day."
The International Energy Agency's August 12, 2026, Oil Market Report noted that Gulf oil production was still 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in July. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated shut-ins at an average of 5.5 million barrels per day in July, cautioning that transit constraints in Hormuz could increase this figure.
The Upstream Challenge
Berman distinguishes between the "midstream problem," which involves safely transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the "upstream problem" of producing the oil itself. He explained that restarting a shut-in well is not a simple process. It requires re-establishing communication between surface equipment and underground reservoirs, a complicated and high-risk procedure that can take weeks or months.
"This is not like turning on a switch for a light bulb," Berman stated. "It's a complicated, high-risk, relatively long-term process, and we don't know the outcome." He predicts that while about 80% of affected wells might eventually return to near-previous production levels, some will require significant engineering work, and others may permanently operate at reduced capacity. "Some of that production will never come back," he warned.
Other energy analysts acknowledge the technical difficulties of restarting production. Wood Mackenzie, for instance, projects that affected fields could recover to about 70% of their previous output within three months and 90% within six months under a controlled restart, though the remaining 1 million barrels per day could take much longer to restore.
Even after a political agreement or ceasefire, Berman cautioned that shipowners, insurers, and crews would need to regain confidence in the safety of the waterway, and logistical and security issues could persist.
A Fundamental Shock
Berman views the Persian Gulf conflict as a profound shock to the global energy and economic system, with consequences that will extend beyond the immediate crisis. He compares the scale of production disruption to other major economic events of recent years.
Despite the United States being the world's largest oil producer, Berman argues that American consumers are not insulated from these global disruptions. The U.S. relies on various crude grades for its refineries to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Therefore, domestic production alone cannot fully shield the nation from international market volatility.
"The problem for the U.S. isn't that we don't have enough oil, we almost do," Berman said. "It's that the oil we have isn't the right kind" for all the products American refineries manufacture.
The EIA reported that disruptions in Hormuz had already driven international buyers to seek alternative petroleum sources, contributing to increased U.S. refinery margins, production, and exports. The duration of these economic impacts will depend on whether production recovery proceeds as anticipated by agencies like the EIA or faces the technical hurdles Berman highlights.
A White House spokeswoman, Taylor Rogers, pushed back on concerns about lasting threats to U.S. energy security, citing record American production and attributing instability in the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. "Thanks to President Trump, the United States is now the world’s number-one producer and exporter of oil and gas. Record oil and gas production strengthens our energy independence and national security," Rogers stated. She added that the situation underscores the need for allies to invest in reliable energy sources and deepen partnerships with the United States.