OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October, according to a statement released Sunday. The decision comes as the producer group, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, faces significant disruptions to global oil exports, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing conflict.
The meeting involved seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. These nations, along with the United Arab Emirates, have been central to monthly output decisions in recent years. The group had previously agreed on a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut established in 2023, with production increases scheduled for September. However, actual production levels have remained below targets due to the complex geopolitical landscape.
Experts suggest that OPEC+'s current influence over the physical oil market is limited. "The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market," said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. This situation has shifted the group's focus from short-term production adjustments to longer-term strategic planning, particularly concerning output baselines for 2027.
OPEC+ currently has additional production cuts in place that extend through the end of 2026 for most of its 21 member countries. Before these cuts can be unwound, the group must review members' oil production capacities to establish new quotas for 2027. This complex debate is anticipated to occur later in 2026, leading to expectations that OPEC+ will likely pause further output increases for the fourth quarter of this year. The group's official statement on Sunday did not outline policy decisions beyond October.
The seven core members that met on Sunday are scheduled to hold their next meeting on October 4.