U.S. Special Presidential Envoy Keith Kellogg said Monday that he and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine recently told President Donald Trump that Russia is "losing" its war in Ukraine, describing Moscow's human and material costs as enormous even as it has made limited territorial gains.
Kellogg spoke at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv and said the two military advisers gave their assessment about six weeks before Mr. Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. "If Putin thinks Russia is winning, his definition of winning and my definition of winning are absolutely two different things," Kellogg said. He argued that if Russia were winning it would control Kyiv, be west of the Dnipro River and be on Odessa.
Kellogg said he urged the president to consult Gen. Caine directly; he said Caine agreed, telling Mr. Trump "Nope, not winning." The envoy also recounted remarks made in the Oval Office in which he sought to counter public assertions about the strength of Russia's armed forces. "We'd kick their ass," Kellogg said he told other senior administration officials, adding that Washington should not take Russian statements at face value.
Kellogg said Moscow has suffered what he characterized as "well over a million" casualties when combining the dead and wounded, and that the Kremlin's losses are on a scale he compared to World War II and to the Soviet Union's losses in Afghanistan. He said Russia has been forced to pull tanks from museums and other storage to field them, and that its forces cannot execute large movements without incurring severe losses. "They may make movements ... in the Donbas region, in the Donetsk, but if you consider advancing moving by meters, not miles, well then OK," he said, describing those advances as costly and limited.
Kellogg credited the Ukrainian military with blunting and degrading Russian capabilities and said Western leaders should be less fearful of Russian military reprisals. He called on European partners to impose tougher economic measures, including an end to purchases of Russian oil, which he said fuels the Kremlin's war effort. "You've got to apply absolute economic pressures, and this means you got to put some risk into the game," he said.
The remarks offer a rare public glimpse into private discussions inside the White House about the war in Ukraine. Kellogg's statements reflect his view and those he attributed to Gen. Caine; casualty totals and assessments of battlefield control can vary among officials and are difficult to independently verify in real time.
Kellogg acknowledged that Moscow has made some ground in eastern Ukraine, including around parts of Donetsk and the broader Donbas, but he emphasized the disparity between small territorial shifts and the human and equipment costs Moscow has borne. He said Ukrainian forces have inflicted heavy losses on Russian formations and that sustained Ukrainian resistance has constrained Moscow's ability to conduct broad offensive operations.
Kellogg spoke as Kyiv continues to press for international support in the face of an invasion that began in 2022. His call for increased economic pressure follows a long-running Western strategy of sanctions and export controls aimed at degrading Russia's ability to sustain its military campaign. The assessments by U.S. officials come amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and periodic discussions among NATO and European partners about further measures to reinforce Ukraine and to limit Moscow's revenue streams.
Kellogg's public remarks at the Kyiv conference on Monday are part of a larger debate in Western capitals over how to calibrate military and economic assistance to Ukraine, while avoiding escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia. He urged allies to be decisive in applying economic levers to undermine the Kremlin's capacity to wage war, and reiterated his contention that Russia's battlefield setbacks belie public assertions of success.