Scotland's prison population has risen back above the level that prompted the emergency early release of hundreds of inmates earlier this year, prison service figures show.
More than 300 short-term prisoners were moved out of custody in February and March after Scottish Prison Service (SPS) managers warned they could not accept more arrivals. In the week before those releases began the total population was 8,326; seven months later the number stood at 8,359, and official projections suggest it could reach as high as 8,750 by December.
The early release programme applied to people serving sentences of less than four years who had served 40% of their term; those convicted of domestic abuse or sexual offences were excluded. About half of those freed in February and March had been serving sentences for violent crimes. A separate scheme in 2024 released 477 short-term inmates who had served at least half their sentence.
Prisons in Scotland have a combined designed capacity of 7,805 but have been operating above that level for months. Ten of the 17 establishments are currently flagged at red risk — an assessment meaning they are struggling to cope with demand — up from eight in June. The SPS said the rising population was having a "destabilising effect" on its jails.
"We have been managing an extremely high and complex population for more than a year and the number of people in custody set to rise even further," an SPS spokesperson said. "This has an increasingly destabilising effect on our establishments, with staff unable to do the critical work of building relationships and supporting rehabilitation, and prisoners frustrated by the impact on their daily lives and the opportunities available to them."
Officials and analysts point to several drivers of the increase. Backlogs in court hearings following the Covid-19 pandemic mean a substantial portion of the prison population are unconvicted remand prisoners; SPS data cited by officials show about 22% of people in custody are awaiting trial. There has also been a rise in the number of people convicted of sexual offences: the number of prisoners with a history of sexual offending increased from just over 1,500 in 2022 to about 2,300 in April this year.
Those groups require separate accommodation from the mainstream population, compounding space pressures. Prison managers also face the logistical challenge of keeping violent rivals, including around 660 prisoners with strong organised crime gang associations, separated to reduce violence and protect staff and inmates.
The SPS warned that continuing increases would further disrupt rehabilitation programmes and day-to-day operations. Justice Secretary Angela Constance acknowledged there was "no single reason for the increase and there is no single solution" and said the government was working with the SPS on a range of measures. She pointed to steps already taken, including changing the point of release for some short-term prisoners and widening the use of home detention curfew to enable selected individuals to serve the end of their sentence under curfew and licence conditions.
Where to house any further influx of prisoners presents a major challenge. Plans to replace Glasgow's ageing Barlinnie prison, Scotland's largest jail, are years behind schedule and over budget; the project is now expected to open in 2028 at a cost approaching £1 billion. Building new capacity will not address immediate pressures, officials say, and emergency releases have been used as a temporary measure in the short term.
Projections published by the justice department in July set out a range of possible year-end averages, from 7,950 to 8,750, depending on court timetables and other variables. Scotland's current imprisonment rate remains high compared with many European countries; research by the Institute for Crime and Justice Policy Research places Scotland's rate at about 147 prisoners per 100,000 population, the highest in the UK.
Campaigners and some criminal justice experts have called for a broader rethink of sentencing and custody policy to reduce reliance on short custodial sentences. The SPS has said repeatedly that a sustained reduction in numbers is needed to restore stability and allow staff to focus on rehabilitation rather than daily crisis management.
The prison population peaked at 8,420 in 2012; SPS chief executive Teresa Medhurst has said it is a "realistic expectation" that this record could be broken if current trends continue. The Scottish government said it expects the findings of an independent review of sentencing by the end of the year and will continue to work with the prison service and partners to manage the population "in a sustainable way."