Russia and Belarus on Friday began the large-scale Zapad military exercises on NATO's eastern flank, prompting heightened security across the region after Poland said Russian attack drones violated its airspace this week.
Poland ordered the complete closure of its border with Belarus for the duration of the drills, moved barbed wire and barricades across roads and deployed tens of thousands of troops to the frontier. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the country had sent 40,000 soldiers to the border and described the coming days as "critical," after Polish forces and allies scrambled fighter jets in response to what Warsaw has called a deliberate drone incursion earlier in the week.
Moscow's defence ministry said the joint strategic manoeuvres of the Russian and Belarusian armies had started and described the exercises as defensive. Organisers said the drills would not exceed 13,000 personnel, though Western officials and analysts remain wary because similar manoeuvres in 2021 saw a major force build-up that preceded large-scale military operations in Ukraine.
Poland and Baltic states Lithuania and Latvia have increased security measures. Lithuania announced protective steps at its border and Latvia also reported partial airspace closures. France announced it would send three Rafale fighter jets to help protect Polish airspace. NATO said it would monitor developments closely.
Polish authorities said about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace during an incident between Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Warsaw and several Western governments called the incursion a deliberate provocation and a test of NATO's response. Moscow denied targeting Poland, and a senior Russian diplomat in Warsaw said the drones originated from the direction of Ukraine. Russia's defence ministry said its unmanned systems had attacked targets in western Ukraine but had not intended to hit Polish territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the violation a "dangerous precedent" for Europe. Poland's Tusk dismissed suggestions by some international figures that the incursion could have been accidental. "We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it," he said on social media.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the exercises were "planned exercises" and "not aimed against anyone." The Russian defence ministry described a two-stage plan for Zapad: forces will first simulate repelling an attack against Russia and Belarus, and then practise restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and defeating an enemy, including with participation by a coalition group of friendly states.
Analysts offered differing assessments of the drills' significance. Moscow-based analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said the exercises were being exaggerated and described them as routine annual manoeuvres. Vassily Kashin, a military analyst and member of the Russian International Affairs Council, said the drills were both demonstrative and real combat training and stressed readiness to defend Belarus if required. Western observers said the drills, combined with the drone incident, will be scrutinised for signs of rehearsals for wider operations, particularly around the Suwalki corridor, a narrow stretch of territory that links Poland and Lithuania and is considered a potential vulnerability for NATO.
Zapad, usually held every four years, is scheduled to run until September 16. Belarus had initially stated in January that 13,000 troops would take part but said in May the number would be reduced by roughly half. The scale of the 2021 exercises drew attention because Moscow later mobilised substantially larger formations in operations that followed. This year's iteration will take place while hundreds of thousands of Russian troops remain committed to operations in Ukraine, a factor that Western defence officials say will affect troop allocations and the drills' dynamics.
The presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and Minsk's announcement in August that the exercises would include training with an experimental nuclear-capable missile known as Oreshnik have added a nuclear dimension to concerns among NATO members. Both Moscow and Minsk have repeatedly framed the drills as defensive and as an opportunity to improve command, staff cooperation and field training.
European capitals said they had tested NATO's ability to respond to provocations following the drone flights. Officials noted that, even without immediate U.S. support, European countries were able to scramble jets to support Poland. German Chief of Defence Carsten Breuer said NATO would remain on guard, while Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned of a rapid Russian rearmament.
Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski said closing the border was a response to "very specific aggressive military exercises against Poland that are starting in Belarus" and a measure taken "for the safety of our citizens." The last border crossings with Belarus were shut overnight, effectively sealing the frontier.
The drills come against the backdrop of an already tense security environment tied to the war in Ukraine and deepened mistrust between Russia and NATO members. Western governments have condemned the drone incursion into Poland and several said they would raise the matter with Russian diplomats. Russia continues to deny planning strikes on NATO territory and has accused Kyiv of responsibility in some statements, while Ukraine and its allies maintain that the flights were part of a deliberate pattern of testing NATO's resolve.
As Zapad proceeds, NATO and individual European states have said they will monitor activity closely for any escalation or indications that the exercises are being used to rehearse broader operations beyond the declared scope of the drills. The coming days are likely to see continued patrols, heightened readiness along NATO's eastern border and diplomatic exchanges as allies balance deterrence, surveillance and attempts to avoid inadvertent escalation.