Russia and Belarus on Friday launched the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises along NATO's eastern frontier, prompting Poland to seal its border with Belarus, deploy tens of thousands of troops and heighten security across the region after what Warsaw says was a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace earlier this week.
Poland ordered the complete closure of its frontier with Belarus for the duration of the drills and moved barbed wire and barricades onto roads, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk described "critical days" ahead and said some 40,000 troops had been dispatched to the eastern border. Warsaw has accused Moscow of deliberately flying roughly 20 attack drones into Polish airspace between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning; both Poland and other Western governments called the incident a provocation, which Russia denies.
Russia's defence ministry said the joint strategic manoeuvres of the Russian and Belarusian armies had begun and described the exercises as defensive in nature. Organisers said the drills would involve no more than 13,000 personnel, though analysts and Western officials said numbers and the activities observed would be watched closely. The exercises are scheduled to run until Sept. 16.
In a statement on Telegram, Russia's defence ministry said the first stage of the exercises would simulate repelling an attack against Russia and Belarus, and a second stage would rehearse "restoring the territorial integrity of the Union State and crushing the enemy, including with the participation of a coalition group of forces from friendly states." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that the drills were "planned exercises" and "not aimed against anyone."
Poland has framed the exercises as an acute threat. Tusk said the drills were designed to simulate occupation of the Suwalki corridor, a narrow strip of land between Belarus and Lithuania that NATO considers a strategic vulnerability. Polish authorities closed the last remaining border crossings on Thursday night and have tightened controls along the frontier shared with Belarus.
The drone incursion — which Warsaw says originated from the direction of Belarus — prompted allied air forces to scramble jets in defence of Polish airspace. France said it would send three Rafale fighters to help protect Poland after outgoing French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he would summon the Russian ambassador and condemned the incident as "unacceptable." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the violation a "dangerous precedent" and said it was "no accident." U.S. political commentary included former President Donald Trump suggesting the incursion "could have been a mistake," a view Polish leaders rejected.
NATO officials have said the alliance will monitor the exercises closely. Germany's chief of defence, Carsten Breuer, said NATO would "be on our guard," and European capitals have warned that the drills take place in a more fraught context because of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and Moscow's past use of large-scale manoeuvres as cover for offensive operations.
Zapad exercises in 2021 drew particular scrutiny after Moscow deployed far more forces than initially announced; that year's drills, originally said to include around 12,800 troops, were followed by a build-up that preceded the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Analysts note, however, that this year's exercise is expected to be smaller because large numbers of Russian forces remain committed to operations in Ukraine. Belarus in January said 13,000 personnel would take part, then signalled in May that the figure would be reduced by around half.
The drills have been given added strategic significance by Minsk's recent move to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons and by Belarusian statements that training this year will include Russia's new experimental nuclear-capable missile, dubbed Oreshnik, and nuclear strike training. Those announcements have intensified concerns among NATO members bordering Belarus, including Lithuania and Latvia, which have also ramped up protective measures and announced partial airspace closures.
Russian state media and the defence ministry have published footage of land, air and sea manoeuvres in areas near NATO members, and images distributed on Friday showed tanks and troops participating in exercises at undisclosed locations. Moscow and Minsk said foreign observers would be invited to some events, a standard practice intended to provide transparency, but Western officials said they would still treat the drills as a test of NATO's readiness and resolve.
Analysts offered differing assessments. Alexander Khramchikhin, a Moscow-based commentator, told AFP that the importance of the drills was being overblown and called them "just a show." Vassily Kashin, a military analyst affiliated with the Russian International Affairs Council, described the exercises as both a demonstration and real combat training and said Russia must be ready to defend Belarus "if necessary."
Poland's preparations have included not only troops and barricades but also diplomatic and military appeals to allies. Senior Polish officials said the actions were taken to protect citizens and prevent escalation, while stressing that the measures reflected a perceived increase in the threat level on NATO's eastern flank.
The exercises come at a time of heightened tension across Europe as capitals weigh the implications of maneuvers near NATO borders, recent airspace incursions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. NATO and individual allies have pledged to monitor developments and to coordinate responses if the situation escalates further.