A report by Migration Watch said the number of people who have reached England in small boats since December 2018 now exceeds the total personnel of Britain’s armed forces, citing Home Office figures that show 182,164 arrivals compared with 180,779 service personnel recorded in January.
Migration Watch said the arrivals are disproportionately young men, with almost 90% reported as male and 67% between 18 and 39. The pressure group’s chairman, Alp Mehmet, warned the recent rate of crossings means the total could increase sharply in coming years, saying it had taken eight years to reach about 181,000 and “at the current rate as many will come in little more than three.”
Home Office statistics included in the Migration Watch analysis show that since Labour won the July 2024 election, 54,268 people have reached England in small boats. The total for the year so far is a record of more than 30,000, an increase of about 37% on the previous year, the analysis said. The figures also noted that 188 people landed in three dinghies on a single Wednesday this week, and that 2,203 people have arrived in less than a week since the appointment of the new Home Secretary.
The crossings have drawn intensified political scrutiny after two separate incidents this week in which four people, including two children, died. Officials also reported an uncontrolled landing on a Kent beach on Saturday, the first such landing since December 2022, according to the figures.
Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has been ordered by party leader Sir Keir Starmer to “get a grip” on the situation, and the Home Office said she is exploring options including moving people from costly asylum hotels into barracks on former military bases. Mahmood said the crossings were "utterly unacceptable" and said a return arrangement with France should allow people who cross in small boats to be detained and removed to France, with “first returns to take place imminently.” The Home Office said no removals under that arrangement had taken place at the time of the report.
New Home Office minister Mike Tapp described the returns deal as a pilot and said it was beginning to damage people-smugglers’ business models, adding that he expected the first flight under the arrangement within weeks. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp urged immediate deportations on arrival and criticised Labour for cancelling the previous government’s Rwanda removals policy before it had taken effect.
Migration Watch’s claim compares the cumulative total of small-boat arrivals since records began in December 2018 with the armed forces headcount in January and reflects the sustained rise in crossings in recent years. The Home Office regularly publishes small-boat arrival figures but said operational and policy measures remain under review as ministers seek to reduce crossings and process asylum claims.
The crossings have continued to place logistical and political pressure on the Home Office and wider public services, with ministers and campaigners debating deterrence, removal arrangements, accommodation and border security. Officials emphasised the risks posed to migrants making the Channel crossing and said preventing deaths at sea remained a priority alongside efforts to curb smuggling networks.
The Migration Watch analysis and the Home Office statistics it cites do not change the legal status of people who reach the UK and request asylum, and government statements indicated that formal removals under the France arrangement would be conducted in line with existing legal and operational frameworks.
As arrivals continue, ministers face pressure to produce results from new bilateral arrangements and domestic policy changes while the numbers of people arriving by small boat remained above previous annual levels, according to the published data.