JERUSALEM — An Israeli airstrike this week aimed at killing senior Hamas leaders meeting in Doha appears to have failed and has instead dealt a blow to Israel’s diplomatic standing, enraging Qatar and complicating already fragile ceasefire talks aimed at freeing hostages and ending nearly two years of war in Gaza.
Israeli officials say the strike killed five low-level Hamas members and a Qatari security guard. Hamas and Qatari officials, however, say the group’s senior exiled leadership who were reportedly meeting to discuss a new U.S. ceasefire proposal survived. Qatar’s prime minister said he did not expect ongoing talks to be “valid” after the attack, while stopping short of saying Doha would abandon mediation altogether.
The operation marked a risky escalation by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly said he aims for a “total victory” over Hamas following the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israeli officials had long refrained from striking Hamas figures in Doha because Qatar has served as a key mediator in exchanges that have resulted in the release of dozens of hostages. The apparent survival of the exiled leaders undercuts any immediate prospect of a decisive blow that could be presented as eliminating Hamas’s command in exile.
Harel Chorev, an Arab affairs expert at Tel Aviv University, said that had top leaders been killed the strike might have given Netanyahu the political room to claim a victory that would placate hard-line members of his coalition. Instead, Chorev said Israel’s action appears to have burned a channel for negotiation. “Israel, by the attack, notified the whole world that it gave up on the negotiations,” he said.
Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, told the U.N. Security Council that the timing of the attack suggested Israel had abandoned the hostages. “Extremists that rule Israel today do not care about the hostages — otherwise, how do we justify the timing of this attack?” he said. Sheikh Mohammed later met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to Qatari and U.S. statements, as mediators weighed how to proceed.
President Donald Trump, who returned to office this year and whose administration has been a staunch supporter of Netanyahu, expressed displeasure with the operation. Trump said he was “very unhappy” about the strike and told Qatari leaders such an attack would not happen again, while not indicating whether he would impose any sanctions or new restrictions on Israel.
Netanyahu reacted by threatening further action if Qatar continued to host Hamas leaders and by warning the militant group there was “no place where we cannot reach you.” Within Israel, his government has signaled no willingness to halt the campaign in Gaza, with the military pushing an expanded offensive aimed at taking control of Gaza City and urging a full evacuation of areas holding roughly 1 million civilians in anticipation of intensified operations.
Domestic politics have factored heavily in the decision to authorize the strike. Hard-line members of Netanyahu’s coalition have pressed for an expanded ground offensive even as military leaders and broad segments of the public have expressed concerns about the costs of such operations. Political scientist Gayil Talshir of Hebrew University said Netanyahu’s immediate political survival depends less on public opinion than on the support of his governing partners, many of whom applauded the assassination attempt.
Public opinion in Israel, however, has grown weary. Polls and public commentary suggest roughly two-thirds of Israelis favor ending the war and securing a deal to return hostages. Analysts say a collapse of negotiations following the strike could deepen the divide between the government’s military objectives and the desires of much of the populace.
The prospect of derailed talks raises stakes for the roughly 20 hostages officials believe remain alive in Gaza. Qatar has helped negotiate previous ceasefires that freed 148 hostages, including eight bodies, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Israel’s military has reported rescuing eight hostages alive and recovering the bodies of 51 others.
For families of captives, the strike has amplified fear and frustration. Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan remains captive, said she was “shaking with fear” and accused the prime minister of destroying opportunities for a deal.
Internationally, the attack drew condemnation across the Arab world and prompted concern among Western allies who have already criticized the Israeli offensive over civilian casualties and humanitarian conditions in Gaza. The European Union, the United Nations and several major Western governments have urged restraint and pushed for negotiations, while some countries are preparing measures at the United Nations that could increase pressure on Israel.
Israel has said its campaign has largely eliminated Hamas’s top leadership inside Gaza during a 23-month offensive, but Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted the war must continue until Hamas is eradicated. Analysts say that objective is increasingly difficult to achieve and that the diplomatic fallout from the Qatar strike could complicate any future efforts to negotiate the release of remaining hostages or to secure a broader cessation of hostilities.
The long-term impact of the strike on Israel’s relationships with key partners, including the United States, remains uncertain. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem, said Netanyahu’s short-term political fate is tied to his coalition rather than public opinion, underscoring why the prime minister may feel able to absorb diplomatic costs for now. Whether those costs will translate into meaningful pressure from allies to change course is a central question facing the region’s next diplomatic moves.