Australia had 98,979 people who had been refused protection visas but remained in the country as of July 31, Department of Home Affairs data show, exposing a growing deportation backlog that experts say is driven by a rise in asylum claims, reduced compliance resources and slow removals.
The figure represents a 114% increase from November 2019 and excludes an additional 27,000 people awaiting decisions, officials said. Former deputy secretary of the Immigration Department Dr. Abul Rizvi said the August total, to be published in coming days, had likely passed 100,000.
The Department’s tally includes people deemed unlawful non‑citizens and some who are still appealing through review tribunals. Between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, deportations of failed asylum seekers averaged about 12 per month, according to media reporting based on Home Affairs data. At that removal rate, it would take centuries to clear the current backlog.
Experts and advocates cited several factors behind the accumulation. Dr. Rizvi said a surge in what he described as weak or bogus asylum claims began around 2015–16, when Peter Dutton was immigration minister in the Coalition government. He and others also pointed to long‑term cuts to immigration compliance staff and to a market of migration agents who profit by recruiting students and arranging applications.
According to prior reporting, the number of immigration compliance officers fell from 360 in 2013 to 203 in 2022. Labor has since restored some compliance resources, but Dr. Rizvi said the increase has not matched the scale of the caseload and that many people have exhausted appeals and remain unlawfully in the community.
"Most would not have work rights and would be working unlawfully," Dr. Rizvi said, adding that many live in an informal or "shadow" workforce concentrated in farming, construction and hospitality.
Peter Strachan, national president of advocacy group Sustainable Population Australia, said that exploitation of refused visa holders is common. He described a system in which contractors supply labour for agricultural and other work and take a cut, leaving refused migrants underpaid and vulnerable to abuse.
A media analysis of Home Affairs data reported that India and China—Australia’s largest sources of international students—accounted for a disproportionate share of asylum claims and refusals. Indian nationals reportedly made up more than one in five refusals; only about 290 Chinese nationals were recorded as granted asylum, around 7% of grants in that reporting.
Migration agents have been blamed by officials and advocates for steering some international students into asylum pathways. Dr. Rizvi recommended targeted enforcement, urging compliance teams to prioritise recent applicants with weak cases who can be removed more promptly and to crack down on unscrupulous agents, including those who leave their names off applications.
The backlog has policy as well as human consequences. Dr. Rizvi estimated roughly 50,000 people had exhausted all avenues of appeal and remained in Australia unlawfully. Advocates warn that a sizeable undocumented workforce can depress wages and increase exploitation, while enforcement authorities say addressing long‑standing caseloads will require significant resources and sustained effort.
Former opposition leader Peter Dutton, who has been criticised for his record on compliance, has defended past visa cancellation activity. In 2023 he said his government had cancelled more than 6,000 visas of people convicted of serious crimes and that his actions had improved national safety, adding that Labor had not matched the number of cancellations since taking office.
The Department of Home Affairs was contacted for comment. The figures underline a complex mix of arrivals, legal appeals, agency resourcing and market incentives that authorities say will take time and targeted enforcement to resolve.