The Middle East is on edge, bracing for a potential return to all-out war amid growing concerns that the United States and Israel could launch strikes against Iran. These fears have intensified in the lead-up to the U.S. midterm elections.
Diplomatic channels remain active, with two Iranian officials confirming that their delegation had departed Qatar after days of discussions, though messages with the U.S. are still being exchanged through intermediaries. These diplomatic efforts aim to prevent further attacks, as Tehran has increased its public messaging while awaiting a U.S. response to a proposal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping within two days, contingent on Washington meeting certain conditions.
U.S. President Donald Trump reported a "very good" call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, during which Iran was discussed, though details were not disclosed. Concerns had been mounting that Netanyahu might pursue new strikes against Iran to bolster his political standing, even before his bloc lost its parliamentary majority in a recent election.
Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, met with military chiefs, emphasizing that any threat from the U.S. or Israel should be met with an immediate and geographically unrestricted response, urging an expansion of potential targets. Khamenei has not been publicly seen since initial strikes by Israel and the U.S. on February 28 that killed his father, the former supreme leader.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's security chief, warned on X of "devastating blows on the aggressor using new weapons" in the event of an attack. He also noted a shift in the U.S. tone, calling it a "very good sign," and referenced a letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, though he did not detail its contents or mention a response.
Rezaei stated that Iran's nuclear doctrine has not changed, despite some domestic discussion about altering it if Iran faced further attacks. Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful. Washington's objective remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and addressing this in any new talks, while Iran prefers to discuss the nuclear issue at a later stage. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that the final outcome hinges on the U.S. providing answers to "Iranian questions."
The Strait of Hormuz saw an increase in reported attacks on commercial ships during October, marking the busiest month for such incidents since the war's early weeks. At the Manama Dialogue, an annual security summit in Bahrain, regional officials expressed grim outlooks. Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the UAE president, stated a desire to avoid further confrontation and acknowledged the significant gap between U.S. and Iranian positions, warning of the "worst" if these are not bridged. Gulf nations have significantly increased defense spending since the conflict began, with the UAE reporting over 3,000 intercepted drones and missiles targeting its facilities.
Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty cautioned that a "second round (of escalation) will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere."
Meanwhile, China announced it would send a special envoy to Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November, with President Xi Jinping emphasizing that the Middle East Gulf region should not become a site for great-power rivalry.