Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union finished first in municipal elections in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, but the biggest winner in the first electoral test since his government took office was the far-right Alternative for Germany, which significantly increased its vote share compared with five years ago.
Final results announced Monday showed the CDU taking 33.3% of the vote in Sunday’s elections for councils and mayors in the state, home to about 18 million people. The center-left Social Democrats, once a reliable force in the state, received 22.1%. The anti-immigration AfD took 14.5% — a rise of 9.4 percentage points from the 2020 municipal elections — while the Greens fell to 13.5% from 20% five years earlier.
The results underline AfD’s growing footprint in western Germany after it emerged as the largest opposition party in the federal election in February, when it took 20.8% nationwide and 16.8% in North Rhine-Westphalia. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome “a huge success” on Sunday. Political analysts said the party’s gains reflect voter discontent on migration, economic stagnation and concerns over the war in Ukraine.
"AfD is in a position to organize the discontent with the traditional mainstream parties," said Stefan Marschall, a political science professor at Duesseldorf's Heinrich Heine University. He noted the party did not field candidates everywhere on Sunday, suggesting the tally may somewhat understate its underlying support.
The municipal elections were the first electoral test since Merz's conservative-led administration took office in May. The government has pledged tougher migration policies and economic revival, but it has also attracted attention for internal disagreements. The state government in North Rhine-Westphalia, led by conservative Governor Hendrik Wüst, includes the Greens; that state government was not up for election Sunday.
AfD’s surge included advances in several less prosperous cities in the industrial Ruhr region, where three AfD mayoral candidates earned enough support to progress to runoff votes on Sept. 28. AfD contenders will face Social Democratic opponents in Gelsenkirchen and Duisburg and a Christian Democrat in Hagen.
The Greens’ sharp decline to 13.5% marked the biggest drop among the major parties. The party is now in opposition at the federal level following the collapse of the previous center-left government but remains part of the state administration in North Rhine-Westphalia.
AfD’s rise has occurred despite scrutiny from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, which classified the party as right-wing extremist before suspending that designation after the party launched a legal challenge. The classification and legal dispute have drawn attention to the party’s rhetoric and organizational direction but have not stemmed its electoral momentum.
Analysts said the municipal results reflect both local dynamics and broader national trends. The center-left Social Democrats suffered a decline from their historical strengths in the state, while the CDU’s lead demonstrates consolidation of conservative support but not the gains AfD achieved. Voter concerns about migration and economic performance, together with dissatisfaction over party infighting and the pace of change since the federal government transition, helped shape the outcome.
The Sept. 28 mayoral runoffs will be closely watched as a measure of whether AfD can convert improved vote shares into executive municipal offices, particularly in former industrial areas where economic dislocation and demographic change have fueled protest voting. Observers said the party’s performance in western cities marks a notable expansion of its influence beyond its strongerholds in eastern Germany.
The municipal polls offer a preliminary gauge of public sentiment ahead of future regional and national contests, and parties across the spectrum are likely to reassess strategies in response to the shifting map of support revealed by Sunday’s results.