France’s lower house of parliament was set to remove Prime Minister François Bayrou in a no-confidence vote Monday, a move that would deepen a political crisis and further complicate efforts to rein in public finances.
Bayrou, who has served nine months as prime minister, called the confidence motion himself after a months-long standoff over an austerity budget that proposes roughly €44 billion in savings to reduce the country’s debt. He warned lawmakers that failure to approve the plan would create a high risk of disorder and chaos,'' describing France’s fiscal position as a terribly dangerous period… a time of hesitation and turmoil.''
Opposition parties across the political spectrum have signalled they will vote against Bayrou’s minority government, making survival of the motion unlikely. Bayrou needs a majority of the Assembly’s 577 deputies to prevail. He was scheduled to address deputies at 1300 GMT in a final plea for support, with the vote expected at 1700 GMT.
If the Assembly votes him out, President Emmanuel Macron would face two immediate choices: appoint a new prime minister to try to negotiate a working majority in a fragmented parliament, or dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections. Macron has ruled out resignation and has said he will not step down, but public support at home has weakened sharply.
Polling cited by French media shows mounting public dissatisfaction. An Odoxa-Backbone poll for Le Figaro indicated about 64 percent of respondents wanted Macron to resign rather than choose a new prime minister. An Ifop poll for Ouest-France put Macron’s disapproval at about 77 percent — the lowest of his presidency, according to that survey.
The vote comes amid heightened social tension and recurring street protests. A left-wing group calling itself "Block Everything" has planned a day of action for Sept. 10, and trade unions have urged national strikes on Sept. 18, raising the prospect of wider unrest if parliamentary paralysis persists.
Bayrou is the sixth person to hold the premiership under Macron since 2017. He would be the second prime minister to be removed in the space of a year after Michel Barnier’s dismissal in December. The rapid turnover in the office has underscored the difficulty of forming stable majorities after the fragmentation of the political landscape in recent elections.
The political turmoil coincides with serious fiscal challenges. France’s public debt stood at about 113.9 percent of gross domestic product and last year’s budget deficit was reported to be nearly double the European Union’s 3 percent of GDP limit. Analysts and officials have warned that widening bond spreads — the premium investors demand to hold French debt — could increase borrowing costs and raise the risk of further credit downgrades.
Macron has appealed for political responsibility and stability, telling parties after an international summit on Ukraine that "France must continue to move forward" amid global instability. The president has been active on the international stage, leading European efforts related to the war in Ukraine, but those diplomatic roles have not insulated him from domestic criticism. French law bars him from seeking a third consecutive presidential term in 2027.
Some centrist figures backing Macron have discussed the possibility of working with the Socialist Party to form a governing majority. Socialist leader Olivier Faure has said he would be prepared to take the premiership and has produced a draft budget, though left-wing forces beyond the Socialists might not automatically support such an arrangement.
Beyond immediate parliamentary arithmetic, the outcome of the no-confidence vote will shape France’s capacity to address its fiscal position and maintain a steady role within the European Union at a time of renewed geopolitical tensions. Lawmakers, party leaders and investors were watching the Assembly session and the expected vote closely, with decisions due by late afternoon Paris time.