A downturn in international travel to the United States that first surfaced in February shows signs it could extend beyond the summer travel season, industry analysts and local officials say.
Communities that routinely rely on foreign visitors, from border towns to major tourist hubs, reported weaker-than-expected summers as preliminary government and private-sector data pointed to declines in overseas arrivals. The trend has prompted cities and attractions to shift marketing strategies and, in some cases, to consider moving future events abroad.
The World Travel & Tourism Council projected before Memorial Day that the United States would be the only country among 184 studied where foreign visitor spending would fall in 2025. "The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction," Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO, said, adding that other nations are actively rolling out the "welcome mat" while the U.S. government was perceived as less welcoming.
Tourism Economics this month forecast 8.2% fewer international arrivals to the U.S. in 2025, a moderation from an earlier estimate of a 9.4% decline but still well below pre-pandemic levels. The firm said airline booking patterns from May through July point to a "sharp inbound travel slowdown" likely to persist in coming months.
U.S. government figures from the National Travel and Tourism Office through July showed the number of overseas visitors — excluding Mexico and Canada — down by more than 3 million, or roughly 1.6%, compared with the same period a year earlier. Western Europe accounted for declines overall, with double-digit drops from some countries, and parts of Asia also showed steep decreases in arrivals.
Analysts and some local officials have tied the slump to policy and rhetoric since President Donald Trump returned to office. They cite renewed tariffs, tightened immigration and visa rules, a reinstated travel ban targeting mainly African and Middle Eastern countries, and highly publicized immigration enforcement actions as factors that have dampened foreign appetite to visit the United States.
"The sentiment drag has proven to be severe," said Tourism Economics in its report. Deborah Friedland, managing director at Eisner Advisory Group, said rising travel costs, political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have combined to depress demand.
Local tourism officials described tangible impacts. Visit Buffalo Niagara chief executive Patrick Kaler said a summer marketing push — including a billboard on the highway linking Toronto to New York and a $500 gift card giveaway — initially drew attention but failed to restore Buffalo’s customary influx of Canadian visitors. Kaler said more than 1,000 people entered the giveaway, yet by late July the typical summer wave of Canadians had not materialized and the organization pivoted promotions to U.S. regional markets and amateur sporting events.
Canada has been among the most reluctant to send visitors this year. Statistics Canada reported that in June and July more U.S. residents drove into Canada than Canadians drove into the U.S., the first such reversal in nearly two decades outside the pandemic months. In July alone, Canadians returning from the U.S. by car fell 37% year over year, and plane return trips declined 26%.
The loss of foreign attendees has affected cultural events and competitions. Organizers of the International Lindy Hop Championships, typically drawing about half its attendees from outside the U.S., said several international competitors pulled out this year because they felt unwelcome. Co-producer Tena Morales said the event is weighing whether to move future editions to another country until the political climate changes.
Washington officials have also signaled concern. Destination DC projected a 5.1% dip in international visitors for the year and announced a campaign to "counter negative rhetoric" by highlighting residents and the city's personal side following high-profile security measures at Union Station.
Not all destinations saw declines. Parts of the Midwest and smaller tourism markets reported steady or improved seasons bolstered by domestic travelers. Destination Door County in Wisconsin said loyal regional visitors helped produce a strong summer after a slower start, and local businesses reported busy sidewalks and packed restaurants by midsummer.
Major U.S. airlines reported that premium-fare bookings by American passengers helped fill many international flights and that domestic demand was improving after a softer first half of 2025. The Federal Aviation Administration said it was preparing for what it expects to be the busiest Labor Day weekend in 15 years, with bookings for U.S. airlines up about 2% compared with 2024 for the long holiday weekend, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
Economists and industry executives said the timing and depth of any recovery will depend on multiple factors, including policy decisions, changes in global economic conditions and perceptions of welcome. For now, tourism groups and some city officials are adapting marketing strategies, targeting domestic travelers and smaller international markets while monitoring whether the summer's softness signals a sustained shift in global travel patterns.
"We will always welcome Canadians back when the time is right," Kaler said, emphasizing ties that extend beyond commerce. "I don’t want Canadians to feel like we see them as just dollar signs or a transaction at our cash registers. They mean more to us than that."
The National Travel and Tourism Office data showed a handful of countries bucking the overall trend, with arrivals from Argentina, Brazil, Italy and Japan rising in the first seven months of the year. Still, industry groups warned that the overall drop in overseas visitors presents both a near-term revenue challenge for regions dependent on international tourism and a potential signal of longer-term reputational effects for the U.S. travel sector.