European intelligence agencies have indicated that Russia is preparing for "military provocations" against NATO member states, citing increased pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks. These potential provocations are reportedly aimed at signaling to the West to cease support for Ukraine.
Latvian intelligence sources told The Guardian that they observe indications of Russia preparing military provocations against Baltic countries or Poland, though they do not anticipate a full-scale assault. A senior political source from another NATO nation confirmed that intelligence suggests Russian leadership is "planning something against the Baltic states" and may be testing the resolve of U.S. support for these nations.
Latvian intelligence has suggested that Russia is considering "hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems." This comes as Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly targeted infrastructure crucial to Russia's war effort. In a notable instance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a one-week warning last week regarding Russia's drone relay stations in Belarus, leading Putin to cease their operation. Zelenskyy stated that the equipment was being used for drone strikes against Ukraine.
Escalating Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Infrastructure
Kyiv has intensified its drone attacks on Russian territory in recent months, with significant targets including oil refineries that fund Moscow's war operations. Analysts note that Russia's air defense systems, largely designed for conventional aircraft and missiles, have struggled to effectively counter Ukraine's long-range drones. Recent strikes have impacted major refineries, including the NORSI refinery near Nizhny Novgorod, which suspended operations in early April. The Moscow refinery was targeted in late May, and the Ryazan refinery, responsible for nearly five percent of Russia's refining volumes, was hit mid-May. The Perm refinery also halted processing in early May after a drone attack caused damage and a fire.
The cumulative impact of these strikes has placed increasing strain on Russia's energy sector, a primary source of funding for its military operations. This pressure on Putin's war machine, coupled with scaled-back events like the Red Square military parade due to fears of drone attacks, may be a contributing factor to the reported plans for provocations against NATO states.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House thinktank, commented that Moscow would likely seek ways to disrupt the current trend, potentially through "horizontal escalation" or by initiating actions elsewhere, stating, "We should not expect Russia to passively lose."