BRASILIA — Brazil's Supreme Court is set to deliver the final two votes Thursday in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro on allegations he sought to overturn the 2022 election, decisions that could send the far-right leader to prison within weeks and reverberate through the country's politics.
Three of the five justices on the court's trial panel have voted so far, leaving the tally at 2-1 in favor of guilty verdicts on all five charges brought by prosecutors. Justice Cármen Lúcia is scheduled to vote next; if she follows the lead of the panel's rapporteur, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, she would produce the majority needed to convict. Justice Cristiano Zanin, who previously served as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's attorney, is set to deliver the final vote.
Bolsonaro, 70, faces five charges that prosecutors say amount to an attempted illegal seizure of power after his 2022 electoral defeat. The counts include attempting to stage a coup, membership in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and actions that posed a serious threat to state assets and heritage. The trial began in 2023 and has centered on Bolsonaro's actions and those of his allies after he lost the presidency to Lula.
Justice de Moraes has authored many of the convictions in the case, and Justice Lúcia has historically sided with his rulings in prior deliberations. Zanin has generally agreed with de Moraes on guilt in prior votes but has differed on the severity of penalties imposed on other defendants. A conviction by the five-justice panel would lead to a full debate on sentencing, which prosecutors and the court anticipate could begin Friday.
On Wednesday Justice Luiz Fux broke with the two justices who voted a day earlier, saying there was insufficient evidence to convict Bolsonaro on any charge. Fux spent more than 13 hours explaining his dissent to the panel. He also ruled against two of Bolsonaro's allies, finding that former aid-de-camp Mauro Cid and former chief of staff Walter Braga Netto were culpable on the charge of attempting a violent abolition of the democratic rule of law.
Fux has taken a broader procedural stance at times, urging that the Supreme Court lack jurisdiction to try Bolsonaro on some of the charges; he previously lobbied to have the case dismissed on that basis. Legal experts say such arguments could bolster Bolsonaro's position in appeals, including before the full, 11-justice Supreme Court, although panel jurisprudence generally requires at least two dissenting votes in a trial of this type to move an appeal to the full court.
The political stakes are high. In 2023 Brazil's top electoral court barred Bolsonaro from running in elections until 2030, finding he abused his office. A criminal conviction in the Supreme Court could compound legal and political constraints, potentially leading allied lawmakers to press for amnesty measures in Congress or to push the embattled former president to name a political heir for next year's general election.
The trial has consumed political and legal attention across Brazil since it began, and the remaining votes are expected to shape both immediate legal outcomes and the broader contest for influence within the country's right and its opposition to the Lula administration. Observers say the court's ruling will be closely watched at home and abroad for its implications for Brazil's democratic institutions and political future.