Brazil's Supreme Court is poised to deliver a verdict this week in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, deciding whether he is guilty of plotting to overthrow the country's democratic order after his narrow loss in the 2022 election.
The five-judge panel is scheduled to resume proceedings Tuesday to consider any final requests from the parties, after which each justice will vote on Bolsonaro's guilt or innocence. A majority of three votes is enough to convict; if one justice seeks extra time the court could delay a ruling by up to 90 days, though court experts have called that outcome unlikely. A verdict is expected Thursday or Friday.
Bolsonaro faces five counts at trial, including attempting to stage a coup, participation in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and two counts involving destruction of state property. Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet told the court last week that Bolsonaro led a multipronged scheme to cling to power that included undermining confidence in Brazil's electronic voting system and encouraging a Jan. 8, 2023, riot that prosecutors say was intended to force a military takeover. A guilty verdict on the coup-plot count alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years; convictions on multiple counts could result in decades behind bars.
Prosecutors have presented evidence they say shows Bolsonaro convened top Cabinet and military officials to discuss issuing an emergency decree to suspend the Oct. 2022 election outcome while alleged fraud was investigated. Defense attorney Celso Vilardi argued that the plan never reached execution and that planning does not equal the criminal act. "The planning is not the execution. No matter how detailed the planning may be, it is the act of violence that actually consummates the crime," Vilardi told the justices, adding that Bolsonaro "ordered a transition" and did not act against the democratic rule of law. Bolsonaro has consistently denied wrongdoing and has called the trial a politically motivated "witch hunt."
Dozens of Bolsonaro supporters gathered outside his Brasilia residence Monday evening, praying for him, criticizing the Supreme Court justice overseeing the case, Alexandre de Moraes, and urging lawmakers to pursue amnesty measures. Tens of thousands of others marched in demonstrations over the weekend. Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest and is wearing an ankle monitor after being deemed a flight risk, did not appear in court last week because of ill health, and his lawyers have said he may need an unspecified medical procedure that could keep him from attending sessions this week.
Seven other close allies are being tried alongside Bolsonaro, including former defense ministers Walter Braga Netto and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira. Legal procedures call for each justice to recommend a sentence if the defendants are convicted; where recommendations differ, a single justice selected from the panel would determine an average prison term and any fines.
The trial marks an unprecedented moment in Brazil's recent history: for the first time, high-ranking military officers and a former president are on trial together on charges of plotting against democratic institutions. The case has drawn international attention and placed strain on Brazil's relations with the United States. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly defended Bolsonaro and has tied potential tariffs on Brazilian goods to Bolsonaro's judicial situation; the White House has urged Brazilian institutions to proceed without interference. Observers have warned that Washington could announce sanctions, visa restrictions or tariffs after the trial, a possibility underscored by past measures taken in late July that targeted Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who narrowly defeated Bolsonaro in October 2022 and returned to office two decades after first serving as president, issued a national message over the weekend asserting Brazil "will not be anyone's colony," an apparent indirect rebuke of foreign pressure. Supporters of Bolsonaro, many convinced he will be jailed, have called for amnesty for those who face prosecution or exile. "His sentence was ready before this trial began. We want amnesty for all so those jailed can be released, those in exile can come back," said Dorgelina Souza Oliveira de Medeiros, 72, who has joined other demonstrators near Bolsonaro's home.
Court sessions are scheduled daily through Friday as the panel moves toward a decision that could shape Brazil's political landscape and its ties abroad. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face lengthy prison terms; if acquitted, the trial's outcome could nonetheless leave enduring divisions in Brazilian society and its institutions.