Former President Jair Bolsonaro remains a potent political force in Brazil despite a Supreme Court panel convicting him and sentencing him to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup, analysts and allies say.
Bolsonaro was not present in the courtroom for the final hearings; his lawyer said the former leader was under house arrest and too ill to attend. The conviction followed a high-profile case that also implicated several of Bolsonaro’s former aides and military officers.
Public opinion is divided over whether Bolsonaro should be imprisoned. A Datafolha poll conducted in August found 48% of Brazilians wanted to see him jailed and 46% wanted him to remain free; the survey of more than 2,000 people across 130 municipalities carried a 2-point margin of error. A separate online AtlasIntel poll released Aug. 28 showed a hypothetical repeat of the 2022 matchup with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a virtual tie: Bolsonaro at 45.4% and Lula at 44.6% in first-round voting. That survey of 6,238 voters was conducted Aug. 20–25 and reported a 1-point margin of error.
Analysts said those figures underscore Bolsonaro’s continuing relevance in Brazil’s polarized political landscape. "Maybe we’ll see something relatively new in Brazilian politics: a public figure who is under house arrest, who cannot formally take part in politics because of a conviction and ineligibility, but who still influences the course of politics," said Isabela Kalil, coordinator of the Extreme Right Observatory, a research group in Minas Gerais state.
Supporters staged mass demonstrations on Independence Day, four days before the conviction, underscoring the depth of Bolsonaro’s base. At one rally in Rio de Janeiro, a 62-year-old businessman described Bolsonaro as a "hero" who has built an enduring political movement and said the ideals the former president represents cannot be killed or arrested.
Several of Bolsonaro’s closest allies say they will press for legal and political measures to protect him. Senator Ciro Nogueira, a former chief of staff under Bolsonaro and leader of the Progressistas party, said Congress should pursue an amnesty bill that could avert prison time and restore the former president’s political rights. Bolsonaro has already been barred from running for office until 2030 in a separate case.
Other right-wing figures are preparing alternatives should Bolsonaro remain ineligible. Governors and lawmakers identified as potential 2026 standard-bearers include São Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas, Paraná Gov. Ratinho Junior and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son. De Freitas, a former minister and a leading contender, attended the Independence Day demonstration in São Paulo and criticized Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case. De Freitas has said that if elected he would grant Bolsonaro amnesty; private messages released by the Supreme Court showed Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the U.S., accusing de Freitas of quietly preparing his own run while failing to defend the former president.
Religious and evangelical leaders also remain influential in sustaining Bolsonaro’s profile. Prominent evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia said in late August that Bolsonaro’s prominence would persist "whether he’s in prison or not," calling him the greatest right-wing leader in Latin America.
Sociologists and political scientists describe a potential evolution of the movement that propelled Bolsonaro. Esther Solano, who has studied Bolsonaro voters and evangelical constituencies since 2017, said the movement is entering what she termed "Bolsonarism 2.0," with new figures and institutions emerging to consolidate and fortify a conservative ecosystem that could outlive the former president.
Observers say Bolsonaro’s influence could be decisive for the 2026 election even if he cannot run. To be a competitive challenger to a likely Lula reelection bid, any opposition candidate may first need Bolsonaro’s explicit endorsement and the loyalty of his electoral base. The conviction and sentence mark a new and uncertain chapter for Brazilian politics, but analysts and allies agree the former president will remain a central actor in shaping the right’s direction and the broader contest ahead.