International alarm is mounting over the potential for mass civilian violence as paramilitary forces close in on el-Obeid, a strategic city of half a million people in central Sudan. The United Nations and several Western countries have warned of escalating atrocity risks as the country's conflict, now approaching its fourth year, surges with renewed intensity.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have reportedly made substantial reinforcements around el-Obeid, located in North Kordofan. This development has drawn parallels to the RSF's seizure of el-Fasher last year, an attack that U.N. experts described as bearing the "hallmarks of genocide" and resulted in over 6,000 deaths in three days.
"We must not allow the horrors of El Fasher to be repeated in El Obeid," stated a spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.
El-Obeid, situated on Sudan's main east-west road, is vital for the Sudanese army in its fight against the RSF. The military had previously broken a year-long siege on the city early last year and maintains a presence including a sprawling air base and an infantry division. Experts suggest the RSF's aim is to control the road connecting to the capital, Khartoum, and its sister city, Omdurman, potentially threatening them again.
While an attack on el-Obeid is not anticipated to be genocidal in nature, unlike the ethnically motivated killings in el-Fasher, experts warn of possible reprisal killings against those perceived as allied with the military if the RSF retakes the city. "This is not a genocidal move, it’s a tactical one," said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health.
Recent months have seen el-Obeid subjected to intense RSF drone strikes that have damaged civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and residential areas. The U.N. has also reported drone attacks targeting bridges and critical supply routes into the city.
A resident of el-Obeid, Taghreed al-Rashid, expressed fear over the escalating drone attacks, noting a recent strike on a power facility led to a water crisis. Despite hardships, she and other residents remain committed to staying rather than facing the challenges of forced displacement.
These drone attacks have significantly increased civilian casualties in the Kordofan region. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED) indicates a 600% increase in drone-related deaths and an 81% rise in drone attacks in 2025 compared to the previous year, with at least 2,670 people killed in the region.
Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the U.N. human rights office, highlighted that civilians are facing scarce food, fuel, water, health services, and transportation. "Many civilians are trapped. Those who are able to flee are doing so. The imminent offensive must be halted, and civilians enabled to safely leave the city," she urged.
The RSF's ability to sustain a siege on el-Obeid would require significant manpower and resources. However, the paramilitary group has deployed air defense systems, possibly using Abu Zabad in West Kordofan as a logistical hub for operations targeting el-Obeid and Dilling, potentially intensifying clashes.
Sudan's army has also employed drone strikes, reportedly destroying an RSF battalion and numerous armored vehicles in West Kordofan, which helped prevent advances toward North Kordofan and el-Obeid. Army officials stated they have a plan to protect the city's airspace from RSF drones.
Experts suggest that while the army appears capable of an initial defense of el-Obeid, its ability to sustain this against a potentially faster and better-equipped RSF advance remains a critical question.