A surge of 1,097 people who arrived in small boats on Saturday will add millions of pounds to public spending in the coming year, according to an analysis drawing on government, think‑tank and fiscal institute estimates.
The arrivals came on the first full day in office for the new home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, who has been instructed by the prime minister to step up efforts to stop small‑boat crossings. Officials have not yet recorded any removals under the government’s new “one in, one out” return scheme.
The Daily Mail’s breakdown, which cites data from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the Home Office and other sources, estimates the 12‑month cost of the group at roughly £44 million. The calculation treats housing as the principal expense and applies demographic assumptions based on recent channel crossings: 18% under 18 (197 children) and 82% adults (900 adults).
Using IPPR estimates for 2023/24, housing costs average about £41,000 per adult. Children housed by local authorities were estimated to cost about £52,195 a year. The paper calculated that applying those figures to the 1,097 arrivals produces an initial housing bill of about £58 million. The Home Office cites a lower average hotel bill — £119 per night, or roughly £43,435 a year — and ministers have pledged measures they say could cut accommodation costs by about 21% by using fewer and cheaper hotels. Even with a 21% reduction, the report finds housing would still cost about £35.5 million for the group over 12 months.
Other routine costs for asylum seekers are included in the estimate. Weekly spending allowances and food support are paid at different rates depending on accommodation type; the analysis applies government rates — £9.95 per week for those in hotels and £49.18 per week for those in shared housing — to produce a combined annual food and subsistence bill of roughly £2.13 million for the group.
Health spending figures come from the IFS and NHS unit costs. The IFS estimated average NHS spending at about £3,300 per person in 2022/23, which the analysis applies to the 1,097 arrivals for an annual health bill of roughly £3.6 million. The document also counts dental care and sight tests afforded to asylum seekers under NHS rules, noting an average of two dental treatments per registered adult and the cost of sight tests and basic glasses.
Legal assistance for initial asylum applications is provided under a flat fee system. Recent fee increases to a £559 flat rate for initial legal advice produce a first‑stage legal bill of about £613,000 for the group. The report notes that appeals add further costs: in the year to June, 52% of applications were initially rejected and, where appeals are lodged, additional fixed fees apply. Applying recent appeal rates and fee levels produces an additional, later‑stage legal cost in the report’s calculations.
Local authorities also receive a one‑off asylum grant intended to cover incidental costs; at £1,200 per person, the grant adds about £1.3 million to the first‑year tally. Education costs for an estimated 197 children were calculated at an average state‑school cost of £8,210 per child, producing an additional estimated bill of about £1.6 million for the school year.
Bringing those line items together, the report concludes the 1,097 arrivals will cost the taxpayer at least £44 million in the first 12 months after arrival, and ‘‘probably much more,’’ reflecting uncertainty in accommodation mixes, health use and later legal costs.
The paper also sets out longer‑term fiscal implications. Asylum applications typically take more than a year to resolve: the report cites a reduction in average decision time to 413 days in 2024 from 735 days in 2023, leaving many new claimants reliant on state support while their claims are processed. Using the year‑to‑June acceptance rate — 48% of initial applications accepted — the analysis projects that about 527 of the 1,097 could be granted leave to remain after their initial claim, with 570 rejected.
Those granted leave would become eligible for work and retain access to NHS care, housing benefit and Universal Credit; after a decade of National Insurance contributions, they would also qualify for the state pension. The report cites a separate modelling exercise by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) using Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) data that estimated a much larger fiscal bill if hundreds of thousands of migrants are granted leave over the coming years. The CPS projection, described in the report, found that if 801,000 migrants were granted leave to remain between now and 2030, the eventual cost could be about £234 billion in aggregate, an average lifetime burden of about £292,000 per person under what the CPS called ‘‘extremely optimistic assumptions.’’
The analysis also notes the expense of removals. A Home Office voluntary return scheme offers up to £3,000 to failed asylum seekers who agree to leave; between 2021 and 2024, 13,637 people accepted the package at a reported cost of about £40.9 million, with additional administration fees paid to contractors of approximately £53.8 million.
Using the same per‑person assumptions and the mix of outcomes described above, the report arrives at a longer‑term estimate of about £154 million for the cohort’s lifetime cost to the public purse, a figure it equates to the cost of building roughly 750 homes or two new schools. The report notes significant uncertainty in long‑run projections, which depend on decision outcomes, labour‑market integration, future policy changes and construction of cheaper accommodation options.
Officials from the Home Office and other departments did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the specific figures cited in the report. The government has repeatedly signalled plans to reduce small‑boat crossings and to drive down accommodation costs, while critics and charities have emphasised the human and logistical challenges of processing large groups of arrivals.
The arrival of 1,097 people on a single day highlights both the operational pressures on border and local services and the contested fiscal calculations that shape public debate about migration and asylum policy in Britain.