The Group of Copenhagen, an independent international gambling watchdog, has flagged the controversial red-card reversal involving U.S. player Folarin Balogun as one of several events at the recent World Cup that warrant further scrutiny. The organization, which serves as the sporting integrity arm of the Council of Europe, issued a "yellow notice" for the incident, indicating a slightly increased alert level.
The controversy stemmed from Balogun being shown a red card during a match, only for the decision to be overturned by a single FIFA official. This led to the U.S. striker being allowed to play in the Round of 16 match against Belgium.
According to a report by The Athletic, the Group of Copenhagen issued seven such "yellow notices" across the 104-match tournament, which reportedly attracted $240 billion in bets. The watchdog categorizes incidents as Green (normal), yellow (slightly increased alert), orange (increased alert), or red (highest alert) to identify potential issues.
It is important to note that a "yellow notice" does not automatically imply match-fixing or manipulation. The Group of Copenhagen highlighted that Polymarket allowed users to trade on whether Balogun would be permitted to play against Belgium. This market was established on the same day the player received his initial red card. The report indicated that no other prediction markets were created for the other 14 players who received red cards during the World Cup, making Balogun's case the only overturned ban.
The Group of Copenhagen has reportedly submitted an official request to FIFA for a written explanation regarding the Balogun situation. While the full report has not yet been released, a summary of findings from the Council of Europe mentioned three other events under investigation: a red card shown to Themba Zwane of South Africa in the opening match against Mexico, a prediction market where $4.8 million was bet on Spain not to beat Cape Verde in a match that ended 0-0, and a three-and-a-half-minute VAR review that disallowed a goal for Spain's Ferran Torres.
In total, 15 of the 104 matches were placed under "enhanced monitoring," particularly during the final stages of the group stage. The Council of Europe assessed 12 "major controversies" from an "integrity risk perspective."
The rise of prediction markets, which allow betting on a wide range of events, often anonymously and with difficult-to-trace payment methods, was a significant focus for the Group of Copenhagen. This marked the first time the watchdog monitored such markets, including Kalshi, an official partner of FIFA for the 2026 World Cup.
Christian Kalb, an expert on gambling integrity and regulation, explained that "yellow notices" can result from atypical behaviors such as sudden odds changes or liquidity shifts, which do not necessarily indicate manipulation. However, he cautioned that potential conflicts of interest and the use of inside information are key concerns, especially with prediction markets. Kalb noted that these markets can be used for hedging by bookmakers, which may appear suspicious without full context.
This investigation by the Group of Copenhagen was conducted in conjunction with FIFA's Integrity Task Force, which had previously reported no instances of "suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation" at the tournament.