Voters of color were the primary engine behind the Democratic Party's midterm election successes, according to a memo from two veteran Democratic strategists obtained exclusively by TIME. The analysis suggests a significant realignment among these demographics, with Hispanic, Black, and Asian American voters showing increased support for Democrats.
According to the memo authored by Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg, Hispanic voters demonstrated a 28-point shift towards Democrats compared to 2024 presidential election levels. Black voters moved nine points, and Asian American voters shifted 17 points. The strategists argue that this trend was a key factor in the Democrats' ability to achieve substantial gains.
"Voters of color not only turned out at a massive rate, but also swung back towards Democrats in terms of support levels, relative to the 2024 presidential election," Bonier and Rosenberg wrote. They noted that while every major demographic group showed a leftward shift, the movement among voters of color proved pivotal in many races. The memo also highlighted early-vote data indicating that Hispanic turnout surpassed 2022 midterm levels and may have even exceeded 2024 presidential numbers.
This demographic shift could have significant implications for the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic Party's decision to prioritize South Carolina in its primary calendar. With 26% of South Carolina voters identified as voters of color in exit polls, compared to less than 10% in Iowa and New Hampshire, the state's early position in the primary schedule could further empower this crucial voting bloc.
The strategists also pointed to Texas' Webb County as an example of this shift, where the Hispanic vote swung a full 50 points away from Republicans between the 2024 presidential election and the recent midterm victory of Sen.-elect James Talarico. "To be clear, 50-point swings don't happen on turnout alone. In fact, a huge component of this result was clearly due to Trump voters crossing over to support Democrats in this election," the memo stated.
The strategists concluded that "voters of color took a stand in this election, a stand to protect their future," presenting Democrats with an opportunity to address areas where Republicans have fallen short.