Democrats are projected to retake the House for the first time since 2020, driven by improvements in their vote share across various demographics and voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the economy. According to ABC News Voter Polls, approximately 6 in 10 Americans who voted in U.S. House races disapprove of Trump's performance as president, with 53% strongly disapproving. This level of strong disapproval is the highest recorded for any president since at least the 2008 election.
Voter Sentiment and Economic Concerns
Voters who strongly disapproved of Trump favored Democrats for the House by an 89-percentage point margin. Conversely, the 2 in 10 voters who strongly approved of Trump supported Republicans by a 96-point margin. A significant portion of voters, about two-thirds, believe Trump has the wrong priorities or that he prioritizes his own interests over the nation's. These voters overwhelmingly supported Democrats in House races, by 69 and 73 percentage points, respectively.
More voters indicated their vote was a statement against Trump than in support of him, with 43% expressing opposition compared to 16% expressing support. Ninety-six percent of these opposition voters cast their ballot for Democrats.
Economic sentiment played a crucial role, with three-quarters of voters in House races rating the economy negatively. These voters supported Democrats by a 40-percentage point margin. Among those who rated the economy poorly, the margin for Democrats widened to 71 points.
Approximately 7 in 10 voters in House races felt the U.S. economic system favors the wealthy, and they backed Democrats by a 3-to-1 margin. Furthermore, more voters reported their family's financial situation had worsened in the past two years than improved, a trend that saw them largely supporting Democrats.
Impact of Inflation and Party Favorability
About 8 in 10 Americans voting in House races experienced severe or moderate hardship due to inflation in the past year, and the majority of these voters supported Democrats. According to ABC News Voter Polls, 62% of these voters attributed rising prices to Trump's policies rather than external factors.
The Democratic Party held a slight favorability advantage over Republicans, 47% to 41%. Among the 15% of voters who disapproved of both parties, Democrats secured a 25-percentage point lead.
Democrats also saw increased support among younger voters, winning roughly three-quarters of votes from those under 30, a notable increase from previous elections. Independent voters, who previously split their support between the parties, backed Democrats in U.S. House races by a 56% to 39% margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls.