A shift in Labour's immigration policy is projected to cost British taxpayers over £5 billion per year in increased welfare payments, according to an analysis by the Conservative Party. The party asserts that a policy adjustment announced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will permit approximately 450,000 foreign nationals to claim universal credit by the end of the decade.
The estimated annual cost, reaching £5.2 billion by 2030-31, reportedly surpasses the Home Office's previous long-term estimate of £10 billion. The Conservatives contend that concessions made to Labour MPs who opposed Mahmood's original plan mean that out of 1.9 million foreign nationals eligible for settlement by 2030, only 500,000 will face extended waiting periods. The remaining 1.4 million are expected to follow a five-year pathway to indefinite leave to remain (ILR), granting them full access to benefits and social housing.
Conservative figures are based on official data indicating that nearly 32% of non-EU citizens with ILR in Britain currently claim universal credit. Applying this to the 1.4 million individuals receiving concessions under Labour's revised measures, the Conservatives calculate an additional 446,352 claimants. With an average annual payment of £11,694, this equates to a total annual bill of £5.2 billion by 2030-31.
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately stated that the country cannot afford the escalating benefits bill and argued that those coming to the UK should contribute rather than claim benefits. She added that the Conservatives would prioritize British citizens in the welfare system and cease benefits for immigrants. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp asserted that settlement should be earned through work, tax, and contribution, not be a route to lifetime benefits.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch suggested that migrants granted ILR due to Labour's policy changes could have their status revoked by a future Conservative government if they fail to make a net contribution to the country. Badenoch criticized Labour's approach, calling them the 'Welfare Party' and accusing them of being 'obsessed with benefits' for electoral gain.
A Home Office source disputed the Conservative analysis, labeling it "totally wrong" and an "absurd analysis" that assumes a lack of government control over migration. The source asserted that Labour is ensuring settlement follows contribution and that under the Conservatives, many individuals would have been granted settlement automatically. The source attributed the current situation to the "mess" left by the previous Conservative government's handling of the migration system.