Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is set to announce on Monday her final decisions on changes to the rules governing permanent settlement for legal migrants. The proposals, initially intended to extend the waiting period from five years to ten, with some lower-paid workers facing a 15-year wait, have undergone revisions following significant criticism.
The original plan, announced in response to record post-Brexit net migration figures, sparked concerns that it would retroactively affect migrants already in the UK. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner had stated that such a change would be akin to "changing the goalposts." The BBC understands that the revised proposals are likely to exempt most social care workers from the extended waiting period.
Indefinite leave to remain (ILR), or settlement, grants individuals the right to live, work, and study in the UK indefinitely and allows them to apply for benefits and British citizenship. The Home Office projected that under current rules, approximately 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030, a figure partly attributed to high net migration recorded under the previous Conservative government.
Mahmood had argued that reforms were necessary to prevent a potential strain on public finances, citing that the health and care visa route had seen a significant influx. Home Office calculations suggested that 196,000 care workers and their dependants could settle between 2026 and 2030, with an estimated lifetime cost to taxpayers of £9.5 billion. In contrast, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) noted that skilled workers settling in the UK under current rules are expected to contribute around £115 billion in taxes over their lifetimes.
Some within the Labour party and other political figures had voiced opposition to the retrospective nature of the proposed changes, warning of potential impacts on the UK's skills shortage, particularly in the social care sector. Former Home Office Minister Mike Tapp expressed hope that those who have worked in health and social care for five years would be exempt from the extended waiting times, calling it "the right thing to do."