Speaking Monday near the Lincoln Memorial, former President Donald Trump characterized the midterm elections as “the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime.” He urged his base to vote, stating that if a significant portion of those who voted for him in the past turn out, Republicans “will win in a landslide.”
Trump criticized Democrats, labeling their candidates as an "extreme and dangerous slate" with a "radical agenda" on issues ranging from transgender rights to immigration. He also expressed confidence in his own electoral success, stating, “I won many states” in the 2024 election and that “America is ready to go.”
Historically, the party controlling the White House tends to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections, a phenomenon often viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. Michele Swers, a professor of American government at Georgetown University, previously told TIME that voters tend to express dissatisfaction with the president by voting against his party during midterms. This year, Trump's approval rating has reached a historic low ahead of the midterms, comparable to levels seen in 1946.
Polling data has indicated favorable signs for Democrats, with most generic ballot polls suggesting a majority of voters plan to support Democratic candidates. Even in traditionally Republican states, GOP candidates have shown signs of struggle in recent weeks. New York Times/Siena polls released before Election Day showed Democratic Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents in several key states.
As of Monday afternoon, over 57.5 million Americans had cast early ballots. Registered Democrats constituted a larger share of early voters in states with party registration compared to Republicans. However, with many voters expected to cast ballots on Election Day, Republicans, who have historically voted in person on Election Day more frequently, are anticipated to narrow this gap. The final outcomes in several crucial races may not be determined until days after the polls close.