President Donald Trump has stated that his attendance at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, is primarily due to his relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Trump described Erdoğan as a "friend" and a "respected leader," suggesting that enhanced defense cooperation between the United States and Turkey could be forthcoming.
The NATO summit is scheduled to begin Tuesday in Ankara. This emphasis on Turkey comes despite ongoing disputes, including Turkey's 2019 acquisition of Russia's S-400 air defense system, which led to U.S. sanctions and Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 fighter program. Analysts note that Turkey has become increasingly vital to NATO's strategy amid concerns over Russia, instability in the Middle East, and the contested Black Sea region.
"Turkey is crucial to the Trump administration," former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey stated. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly affirmed that Trump would hold a bilateral meeting with Erdoğan at the summit, emphasizing their strong relationship. Jeffrey noted that Trump's favorable view of Erdoğan is genuine but also grounded in strategic calculations, citing Turkey's military strength, geographic position, and willingness to project power as essential for maintaining a U.S. perimeter around Eurasia.
As NATO shifts its focus back to collective defense, allies are being pressed to contribute significant military capabilities. Turkey possesses NATO's second-largest military and controls critical waterways, bordering Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Its defense industry is also substantial. "There is no real security for NATO without full integration of Turkey," commented Rich Outzen, a former State Department advisor.
Recent geopolitical events have further elevated Turkey's strategic value. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Turkey's role in enforcing the Montreux Convention, restricting Russian naval access to the Black Sea, and its early supply of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine. Furthermore, the shifting dynamics in Syria have brought Washington and Ankara into closer alignment, with Turkey playing a role in the opposition that weakened the Assad regime, impacting Iranian and Russian influence in the region.
However, some critics point to divergences in Turkey's foreign policy from many NATO allies. These include Turkey's stance on Hamas, its continued possession of the S-400 system, and its engagement with non-Western organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Sinan Ciddi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Turkey is unique within NATO for seeking membership in such entities while also supporting Hamas and pursuing advanced U.S. defense technology. Erdoğan has defended Hamas and opposed classifying it as a terrorist organization, a position at odds with the U.S. and many allies.
Despite these concerns, the Trump administration has proposed a $700 million arms sale to Turkey. This proposal has faced congressional opposition, particularly from Democrats. Representative Gregory Meeks has raised questions about the justification for the sale and the unresolved issue of the S-400 system. Jeffrey suggested that the proposed sale of F110 fighter engines is a more manageable issue than reintegrating Turkey into the F-35 program, as operating the Russian S-400 system alongside advanced U.S. stealth aircraft poses a technical challenge that could compromise sensitive technology.