President Trump has a limited window of approximately six to eight weeks following the midterm elections to potentially launch renewed military strikes against Iran. Experts believe that if Democrats gain control of the House, a new Congress could begin to constrain his war powers in January, making further military action more difficult. "The outcome of the US elections could make pursuing the war difficult come January, but not impossible," said Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
Trump has previously stated he would "finish the job" in Iran if diplomatic efforts fail. Should military action resume, a likely scenario involves a concentrated bombardment campaign lasting about two weeks. According to Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this approach poses low risk to the U.S. but may not be highly effective, as Iran has previously withstood longer bombing campaigns.
Potential targets for such strikes would likely include military facilities and coastal bases threatening the Strait of Hormuz. For increased pressure, Trump could consider targeting Iran's oil infrastructure and electrical grid, or utilizing bunker-buster bombs against Iran's Pickaxe Mountain base, which is suspected of harboring a nuclear facility. While the effectiveness of bunker-buster bombs against the deeply buried facility is uncertain, such a strike would signal that no Iranian nuclear sites would be spared.
The U.S. has significantly bolstered its military presence in the region, with three aircraft carriers—the USS George H.W. Bush, USS George Washington, and the approaching USS Theodore Roosevelt—along with over 20,000 sailors and marines. Additional firepower includes F/A-18 Super Hornets and F-35C Lightning IIs, as well as numerous destroyers and warships. The U.S. also has F-15E Strike Eagles deployed to regional airbases and advanced anti-missile systems, including Patriot and THAAD, positioned throughout the Middle East.
Iran has warned of widespread retaliation if its energy infrastructure is targeted, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly stating that attacks would have "no geographical limitations." U.S. bases are considered prime targets, aiming to escalate the cost of war for America. Iran's response may be more dangerous due to improvements in its missile and drone systems, as demonstrated in recent attacks. Increased threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are also anticipated, alongside potential actions by Iranian proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen, including the Houthi rebels. Cyberattacks and terror plots are also possibilities.
Israel's involvement in a renewed conflict remains uncertain, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's past advocacy for military action. Israel is currently dealing with the aftermath of its own uncertain election results, which have left Netanyahu in a caretaker role. While Netanyahu may favor a decisive blow against Iran, experts note that a diplomatic resolution could impact his political future. The extent of U.S. support for Israel in such a scenario is also unclear, given previous suggestions that the initial war intervention was at Israel's behest.