Florida Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna's re-election campaign is unexpectedly close, with her race in the Tampa-area congressional district too-close-to-call early Wednesday morning, according to the Associated Press. Luna, a staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, was leading her Democratic opponent, Leela Gray, by less than one percentage point as of 9:30 a.m. EST. This narrow margin represents a significant shift from her previous victories, having won by eight points in 2022 and nearly ten points in 2024.
Following her projected win on Tuesday evening, Luna credited Trump's pollster, Tony Fabrizio, for accurately forecasting the tight race. She stated on X that she secured victory despite Democrats significantly outspending the Republican Party in her district. "Tony Fabrizio is the best pollster in the game. We knew margin entire time given new district and environment. Worth his weight in gold," Luna wrote. She added, "I was outspent by millions. Door knocking wins elections. In politics there is no participation trophy. There are only winners and losers. And today, I won."
Luna, who received Trump's endorsement, has been a vocal proponent of his agenda in Congress. She previously led a blockade of House business aimed at pressuring the Senate to pass Trump's SAVE America Act. Her assertive tactics occasionally placed her at odds with other Republicans, risking the derailment of GOP priorities. In October, Luna also publicly criticized the National Republican Congressional Committee, accusing party leadership of prioritizing personal futures over defending vulnerable Republican seats.
Elsewhere in Florida, Democrats maintained their hold on districts that had been redrawn as part of the mid-decade redistricting process. Jared Moskowitz successfully defended his district, which encompasses parts of Miami and Palm Beach, and Kathy Castor also surpassed her Republican challenger with over 50 percent of the vote. Moskowitz's district, stretching from South Beach to Delray Beach, had become a competitive area following the GOP-led redistricting of Florida's congressional map.
Nationally, the Democratic Party needs to flip at least three seats in the House of Representatives to gain control of the chamber. In the Senate, Republicans currently hold 53 seats, and Democrats require a pickup of at least four seats to achieve a majority. Trump has been actively campaigning across the country, holding numerous rallies to boost Republican turnout. However, sources close to the former president have privately indicated that he would not be held responsible if the midterm results prove disappointing, with one advisor stating, "The president can only do so much."