Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, reaching levels not seen since the height of recent U.S.-Iran conflict, as insurance costs rise and security risks mount. Some vessels are reportedly disabling their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection while transiting the narrow waterway.
Maritime analysts report that approximately 15 ships were tracked through the strait between Thursday and Friday, a 50% drop from the average traffic during the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. Prior to the recent escalation, daily traffic typically ranged between 130 and 150 ships.
Iran has declared the strait closed and threatens vessels that transit without Tehran's explicit permission, while the U.S. maintains that the strait remains open except for ships bound for Iranian ports. The unusual traffic patterns and the disabling of transponders have fueled speculation about the actual volume of business flowing through Hormuz and whether Iran might be profiting from passage assurances, despite U.S. sanctions.
Earlier reports during the conflict suggested that some commercial shippers were asked to pay as much as $2 million for safe passage through waters threatened by Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The exact number of vessels that agreed to such arrangements or whether the practice continues remains unverified publicly.
If such fees are being collected, even on a limited scale, the Iranian regime could be generating substantial revenue while exerting pressure on one of the world's busiest maritime corridors. However, the true financial impact is difficult to ascertain due to the obscured shipping activity.
U.S. officials have expressed concern over any attempts by Tehran to control access to the strait. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that allowing a nation-state to control an international waterway, charge tolls, and threaten ships sets a dangerous precedent that could be replicated in other critical global waterways. He emphasized that freedom of navigation is a vital U.S. national security interest.
Even without direct financial gain, Iran may have achieved a strategic objective by influencing the global shipping industry to consider Tehran's directives when navigating Hormuz. Experts note that Iran's influence over the strait persists, despite U.S. assertions of open passage.
The situation has also raised questions about the U.S. Navy's role in ensuring passage. However, international maritime law generally prohibits U.S. warships from stopping or boarding foreign merchant vessels without legal grounds, such as violating sanctions or transporting prohibited cargo. Merchant vessels retain the right of innocent passage through international waterways.