Russians endured a summer of significant turmoil, marked by drone attacks that disrupted daily life, from fuel shortages to damaged e-commerce hubs, as the war in Ukraine increasingly impinged upon domestic affairs. This period of heightened anxiety and frustration has coincided with a challenging time for the Kremlin, as it prepares for parliamentary elections on September 18-20, the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Over the summer months of June, July, and August, Ukrainian drones were intercepted over Russia and annexed Crimea more than 43,300 times, a substantial increase from the approximately 7,700 interceptions reported during the same period the previous year, according to data compiled by The Associated Press from the Russian Defense Ministry. While many were intercepted, some evidently struck their targets, leading to disruptions such as long lines at gas pumps due to attacks on refineries, canceled or delayed flights, and damage to major online retail warehouses like Wildberries and Ozon.
One of the first major strikes occurred on June 3, targeting an oil terminal near St. Petersburg as President Vladimir Putin's economic forum was underway. Subsequent attacks expanded in geography and frequency, hitting refineries and warehouses across Russia, from Moscow to Yekaterinburg and Omsk. This intensified campaign has reportedly shocked many Russians, according to Denis Volkov, director of the independent polling group, the Levada Center. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have referred to these strikes as "long-range sanctions" and indicated intentions to continue pressuring Russia.
The increased awareness of the war and its consequences comes at a time when President Putin's approval ratings have seen a slight decline, falling to 76% in August from 87% in September 2025, according to Levada Center data. Analysts suggest a growing awareness of the war and less complacency among the populace, with more grumbling and pessimism, particularly within the business community, about the prospects for its end. Persistent rumors of a potential new troop mobilization, reminiscent of the unpopular 2022 draft, have also fueled nervousness.
This backdrop of increased domestic impact from the war and underlying anxiety has complicated the political landscape leading into the parliamentary elections. While the outcome of the tightly controlled elections is largely anticipated, analysts suggest that unexpected events or public sentiment could still introduce volatility. The exclusion of the liberal Yabloko party from the ballot by the Supreme Court, after it had gained traction with its peace platform, has been interpreted by some as an indication that authorities wish to avoid the election campaign becoming a debate "for and against peace."
Despite the growing awareness and a generally dampened mood, experts do not foresee these sentiments translating into widespread anti-war demonstrations or significant protest votes that could alter election results. However, the electoral process itself, including turnout and public discourse, remains important for authorities seeking to demonstrate legitimacy and control. The government aims for the elections to signal complete loyalty from citizens and project an image that Putin and the Kremlin are in firm control.