Republicans are currently trailing Democrats in seven critical Senate battleground races, including some traditionally strong GOP states, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released days before the midterm elections. The poll indicates Democratic candidates are leading in five states currently held by Republican senators: Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. The race in Iowa is virtually tied, while the only Democratic-held seat surveyed, Michigan, shows the Democratic candidate with a double-digit lead.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, stated that the results suggest Democrats have a "distinct possibility" of retaining control of the Senate. However, he cautioned that several races are within the poll's margin of error, leaving the final outcome uncertain. The findings are particularly notable in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and Kansas, where a Democrat has not won a Senate race since 1932. In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
The poll also shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio by 49% to 44%, and Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine 51% to 45%. In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%. Iowa's race is extremely close, with Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds the largest lead among the seven surveyed Senate races, ahead of Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
Broader dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the Republican party's handling of the economy was also evident in the poll. Across the seven surveyed states, only 38% of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance, despite his significant victories in five of these states in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats also hold a nine-point advantage on which party voters trust more to address the cost of living, leading on this issue in all seven states. Additionally, Democratic candidates are leading among independent voters in every surveyed state.
Compared to September polling by the Times/Siena, Democratic candidates have improved their standing in six of the seven states. Alaska was the only exception. Despite these trends, the poll offered some encouraging signs for Republicans. Voters who made their decisions within the past month favored Republican candidates by nine points. The New York Times also noted that polling underestimated Sen. Collins in 2020, when she won re-election comfortably despite trailing in pre-election surveys. Democrats need to defend their existing Senate seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to gain control of the chamber.
The surveys were conducted between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1. The state-level margins of sampling error ranged from plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 percentage points in Alaska.