A final batch of midterm polling from The New York Times and the Siena Research Institute suggests a challenging election night for Republicans, predicting Democrats could lead or be tied in seven key Senate toss-up races.
The poll indicates Democrats are poised to win Senate seats in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El Sayed holds a double-digit lead over Republican Mike Rogers. In Texas, James Talarico is predicted to flip the Senate seat from Republican Ken Paxton. Maine's incumbent Republican Susan Collins is shown trailing her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, within the margin of error. Ohio's incumbent Republican John Husted is projected to lose to Democrat Sherrod Brown.
Furthermore, the polling forecasts a flip in Iowa's open Senate seat, with Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson by one point. In Kansas, Republican Roger Marshall is reportedly trailing his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton. Alaska's incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan is also predicted to lose his seat to former Democrat lawmaker Mary Peltola.
The New York Times noted that Democrats responded to their polls at a significantly higher rate than Republicans this cycle. "Across these final battleground polls, registered White Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered White Republicans," the Times reported.
Amidst these predictions, President Donald Trump has actively campaigned for Republican candidates, urging supporters at rallies to treat the midterms as if his name were on the ballot, emphasizing his legacy is at stake. Advisers have privately suggested that Trump cannot be solely blamed if the results are unfavorable for the GOP, with one advisor stating, "The president can only do so much. If we do fall short in the midterms, it's not because of the president's lack of trying or lack of effort."
Despite public assurances, Trump has reportedly begun identifying potential scapegoats. He has privately blamed super PAC chief James Blair over campaign spending and, according to Bloomberg, pointed fingers at Senator John Cornyn and strategist Karl Rove if Ken Paxton falls short in Texas. Reports also suggest potential changes in Chief of Staff Susie Wiles's role, though Trump has denied any intention to fire her.
In Alaska, Trump has also raised concerns about the election being "rigged" due to the presence of two individuals named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, including the Republican incumbent.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to gain at least four seats to secure control of the chamber. In the House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip at least three seats.