Migrants who used the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to remain in the United Kingdom in 2025 are projected to cost taxpayers nearly £5 billion over their lifetimes, according to an internal Home Office analysis reported by the Daily Telegraph.
The analysis calculated the lifetime cost of each asylum seeker granted the right to remain in the UK under Article 8 of the ECHR—the right to a family life—at £141,000. This projection assumes the individuals will contribute to the economy through taxes.
With nearly 35,000 arrivals granted the right to stay in 2025, the cumulative projected cost for their healthcare, education, welfare, and pension contributions could reach £4.9 billion. The report noted that this figure is an underestimate, as it does not account for the fiscal impact of dependents associated with these individuals.
This projected cost is comparable to the £5 billion welfare budget cut that Chancellor Rachel Reeves reportedly abandoned last year due to opposition from Labour backbenchers.
The government is preparing to introduce new measures aimed at curbing the ability of foreign criminals and failed asylum seekers to use Article 8 to prevent their deportation from the UK. Currently, individuals can argue that deportation would be unduly harsh due to separation from family or the difficulty of relocating to an unfamiliar country.
Political discourse surrounding the ECHR remains divided. Some parties, including the Tories and Reform UK, have advocated for withdrawing from the ECHR to regain full control over the UK's borders. Conversely, the Labour party maintains the importance of remaining within the treaty. Robert Jenrick, Reform UK's economy spokesman, criticized the ECHR for allowing individuals, including foreign criminals, to remain in the UK, contributing to significant costs.
The projections were based on assumptions of migrants entering low-paid jobs with an annual wage of £19,619, with a potential for up to a third to remain unemployed. Direct income tax and indirect taxes, such as VAT, were subtracted from the lifetime cost calculation.