Marine Le Pen's political future is on the line as a Paris appeals court prepares to deliver a verdict on her eligibility to run in the next French presidential election. The ruling, expected Tuesday afternoon, could significantly alter the 2027 contest to succeed President Emmanuel Macron, who is constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term.
The 57-year-old Le Pen is contesting a March 2025 conviction for alleged misuse of European Parliament funds. She and other members of her National Rally party were found guilty of using party staff paid with funds designated for EU parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016. The initial ruling imposed a prison sentence, suspended pending appeal, and a five-year ban from holding elected office.
Le Pen maintains her innocence and has expressed her intention to pursue a fourth presidential bid. However, a conviction that upholds a lengthy ban could effectively end her political career and sideline a prominent critic of the European Union. Prosecutors had requested a four-year prison sentence, three of which would be suspended, along with a five-year ban on holding elected office, accusing Le Pen of leading a system to divert EU funds for her party's benefit.
Should Le Pen be disqualified, her protégé Jordan Bardella, the current president of the anti-immigration, EU-skeptic National Rally, would likely step in. Bardella is 30 years old.
The appeals court has several possible outcomes. It could uphold the lower court's decision, reduce the ban to two years or less, or impose no ban at all. A ban of two years or less would expire before the first round of the French presidential election, scheduled for April 2027.
Even if eligible, Le Pen has indicated that judicial constraints could still prevent her from running. She stated in a recent interview that if she is allowed to be a candidate but is "effectively prevented from campaigning freely," such as through a prison sentence, electronic monitoring, or other restrictions, she might decide against it.
While the appeals court could order the ban to take immediate effect, the lower court did, it is not obligated to do so. Le Pen retains the option to appeal to the Court of Cassation, France's highest court. The Court of Cassation has previously indicated it would aim to issue a ruling before the 2027 presidential election if the case reached it, though it is unclear if a sentence would be suspended during that process.