Following significant losses in the 2026 midterm elections, the future of the MAGA movement, built by Donald Trump, is under scrutiny. Democrats secured control of both chambers of Congress, winning in states previously considered Republican strongholds.
Competing explanations for the GOP's defeat are emerging within conservative circles. Vice President JD Vance attributed the losses to the war with Iran, while commentator Erick Erickson cited a broader range of issues including perceived corruption, incompetence, tariffs, and an impression of cruelty. Others pointed to economic concerns, with right-wing commentator Benny Johnson noting that "life is too expensive," particularly for young people.
Conservative writer Rod Dreher, who supported Trump in 2024, argues that the MAGA movement has run its course. "MAGA is over. It’s done. It’s been a failure," Dreher stated in a discussion on the podcast Today, Explained. He believes that while MAGA had some good ideas and represented a necessary challenge to the pre-Trump Republican establishment, it ultimately failed to deliver on good governance. Dreher asserts that Trump's decision-making, often based on "gut instinct" rather than rational calculation or expert advice, and his tendency to prioritize loyalty over competence, led to a pattern of crises.
Dreher specifically pointed to Trump's wide-ranging tariffs, announced on April 2, 2025, as an early indication of this governance style. He also highlighted the Iran war as a "another gut instinct thing by Trump, which became the symbol for all of the disasters of Trumpism."
"MAGA is Donald Trump. Donald Trump himself said so," Dreher remarked, questioning whether the movement can exist independently of its figurehead. He anticipates a challenging period for the Republican Party, facing both a energized Democratic opposition intent on investigating Trump administration corruption and Trump himself, who is expected to remain a vocal presence seeking to salvage his legacy.
The search for a successor to Trump within the conservative movement is already underway. Dreher noted that JD Vance, previously seen as a natural successor, is now tied to the failures of the current administration, including the Iran war. He suggested that outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has offered critiques of MAGA and Trumpism, could emerge as a viable candidate due to his lack of direct association with the Trump era.
Dreher also discussed other potential figures, expressing disappointment with Tucker Carlson, whom he described as having become an "antisemitic and just a crazy conspiracy theorist." Regarding Senator Marco Rubio, Dreher characterized him as a "chameleon" who has adapted to Trump's foreign policy but suggested that being part of the Trump administration makes it difficult for any figure to escape its political baggage.
Dreher urged Republicans in Congress to assert independence from Donald Trump, arguing that loyalty to him has yielded diminishing returns. "Trump has never been loyal to anybody who’s pledged loyalty to him," he said, citing Trump's criticism of Texas Governor Greg Abbott after his reelection bid. Dreher concluded that Republicans must "find a spine and stand up and establish some independence" to move forward.