A conservative pollster has presented an optimistic outlook for the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections, suggesting that key Senate races are closer than widely reported and attributing any potential GOP victories to the campaigning efforts of former President Donald Trump.
While many polls indicate Democrats are poised to gain a majority in the House and have an edge in several Senate battleground states, pollster Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage believes the narrative is overly pessimistic for Republicans. Appearing on Fox News with Sean Hannity, Towery argued that many races currently projected to lean Democratic are in fact tied and within the margin of error.
"The GOP is lucky to have Donald Trump," Towery stated, emphasizing the former president's extensive travel and campaigning schedule across the country. "Because that man has flown the equivalent from Chicago to Atlanta, day after day, round trip, for 30 days traveling around this country."
Towery suggested that Trump's presence on the campaign trail could be the deciding factor in states like Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska. He conceded that significant work remains for Republicans to secure victories, noting that states such as Alaska, Texas, and Ohio are currently tied, while Republicans hold a slight advantage in Kansas and South Carolina. He described The New York Times, which published a poll showing Democrats with an edge in six of seven key Senate races, as a "bad news bear story," though he did not rule out its accuracy.
Towery also raised concerns about the Georgia governor's race, which InsiderAdvantage has polled as a 50-50 contest, a trend that deviates from the state's recent history of electing Republican governors. He stressed the necessity for Republicans to turn out in "massive numbers."
He added that early in the midterm campaigns, there was a lack of focus on Trump's accomplishments. However, Towery believes Trump's travels have provided a "hell of a great closing statement," and that he should receive credit if the GOP performs well.
This assessment contrasts with other polling data. A Morning Consult poll indicated that 56 percent of voters disapprove of President Trump's performance, with a net approval rating of -15 points. Additionally, a Daily Mail/Ipsos poll found that 55 percent of registered voters believe Trump is hurting Republican chances in the midterms, with only 20 percent stating his efforts are helpful. Even among Republicans, just 48 percent felt Trump was an asset, while 60 percent of independents believed he was detrimental to the party's prospects.